New NBA draft mock - top 8

With the recent results of the NBA draft lotto having just been announced, and after my Portland Trailblazers got jobbed down to the #4 pick, it's time to reconfigure the mock draft to present realities. So here is the new board:

#1 Toronto Raptors - Andrea Bargnani: Many people might not believe it at first glance, but Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo has a nice job. He has a team that has lost a lot of games in the past, but he has the opportunity to build it anew as he wants, starting with some great young pieces, and now the top pick of the 2006 draft. It is tempting to surmise that he wants to remake the Raptors in the image of the Phoenix Suns, with athletic players at every position and multiple 3 pt-shooters on the floor at all times. Toronto already runs at a very fast pace, so isn't that far away. With Jose Manuel Calderon, Charlie Villanueva, Chris Bosh forming a young core and veterans Mo Pete and Mike James possibly but not certainly staying, the Raptors can burn up the floorboards.

The rumor is that to those pieces Toronto wants to add Andrea Bargnani. This 7-footer has great mobility and is a real 3 pt threat, and a matchup nightmare. This still leaves Toronto with a bunch of quick guards and forwards who are tough to matchup with, but no real center, which is exactly how the Phoenix Suns were built.

#2 Chicago Bulls - LaMarcus Aldridge: The Bulls need a shooting guard and a power forward or center. There is some talk that gritty coach Scott Skiles would like the hard-working, intense and defensively capable Tyrus Thomas, but the Bulls also are in dire need of a post presence to balance out their offense. LaMarcus Aldridge could step into the frontline with offensively challenged FC Tyson Chandler and provide that for them. After they make this draft pick (or even before), the Bulls will be very active in the trade market, so nothing it predictable for them this offseason, but Aldridge makes sense for them right now.

#3 Charlotte Bobcats - Brandon Roy: In the first major surprise of the draft, the Bobcats pick the guard from Washington. 'Cats GM Bernie Bickerstaff will favor experienced college talent and fulfilling a need over the questionable potential of the remaining candidates in the draft. Many expect Morrison to be the pick here, and while that is still possible, Roy is the more well-rounded player by far. Roy is going to look great in the workouts preceding the draft, so won't seem like nearly so much of a reach at #3 as he may appear now.

#4 Portland Trailblazers - Rudy Gay: The Blazers would have loved to draft Aldridge with their pick to shore up their thin (and getting thinner if Joel Przybilla leaves) frontcourt, and give them a Bosh-like cornerstone for the future, but according to the ping-pong balls that isn't to be. Of the players remaining, and actually of all the players in the draft, Rudy Gay has easily the most superstar potential.

Blazers management is known to favor players willing to workout against other players in the pre-draft period (which is why they eschewed more highly rated guys like Chris Paul and Gerald Green in favor of Martell Webster last year), and Rudy Gay has already shown that he is fearless in that regard. He has already targetted Tyrus Thomas, Adam Morrison and Brandon Roy as workout partners ... that is if they are willing to accept the challenge. Also, the Blazers will actively be seeking to trade SF Darius Miles this offseason and beyond, leaving the starting job at the 3 position open.

#5 Atlanta Hawks - Tyrus Thomas: Atlanta needs a true point guard, and they will seriously consider being the second major surprise of the draft and taking Marcus Williams. In the end, however, they will fill their 2nd neediest position by drafting the freshman PF from LSU. His upside is huge, and his energy is great, both of which are important for a rebuilding club. Marvin Williams is a SF, and the Hawks will look to sign and trade Al Harrington, leaving Thomas as the guy at the 4 spot in the ATL.

#6 Minnesota Timberwolves - Adam Morrison: The T-Wolves have Kevin Garnett at PF, and need to upgrade at every other position. With Kevin Garnett being unselfish to a fault sometimes on offense, a true scorer like Morrison could really help spring their offense to life. Many will be surprised that the early favorite for the #1 pick and the college player of the year selection falls this low, but Kevin McHale won't let him fall any farther.

#7 Boston Celtics - Marcus Williams: Celtics GM Danny Ainge is faced with some tough decisions. Barring a trade of swingmen Paul Pierce, Wally Szczerbiak, or Ryan Gomes, the 2 and 3 positions seem locked up long-term in Boston. With Al Jefferson, Kedrick Perkins and Delonte West as the frontrunners for the other three positions, the C's have a lot of middling talent but no clear point of greatest anticipated need. Marcus Williams is going to have great workouts, and is a real pass-first true PG from nearby UConn, so I'm putting him down as the Celtics pick. Also look for the possibility of Danny Ainge taking Brazilian big man Tiago Splitter with this pick, depending on what kind of buyout Splitter's agent appears to have negotiated with his Euroleague team, Tau Vitoria.

#8 Houston Rockets - Mardy Collins: Another team near the top of the draft with many needs and no clear answers. The Rockets have Yao at C, and that is the only position they are happy with. SF Tracy McGrady is great for them, when he plays, but his back problems seem to be sticking around and refusing to leave him alone. Young guards Rafer Alston and Luther Head are talented, but just don't seem to be the answers there. David Wesley and Juwon Howard had nice careers, but they are winding down. Stromile Swift has been a disappointment.

With these needs in mind, I look to the Rockets to draft the big senior guard from Temple. The Rockets will certainly consider Randy Foye with this pick, but even though he is listed at PG, he is more of a small SG, a la Ben Gordon. Collins is a true PG and a mature player, and he lets Head switch to his more natural SG role on offense, while still providing a big body to guard taller 2's on the defensive end. Houston probably would have liked Brandon Roy or Marcus Williams to fall to them here, and will also likely take long looks at Foye, Ronnie Brewer and Rodney Carney, but right now I have them down for Collins.

Rumor Mill - Trade Miles for Fisher and Biedrins?

A poster in the chat room with anonymous sourcing posted this trade today, rumored to be in talks right now, that would send Darius Miles, one of Portland's late draft picks this year (#30 or #31) and a future pick to Golden State for Derek Fisher and Andres Biedrins. It sounds plausible, because there are aspects to like and dislike for both teams.

Why Golden State makes this trade:

When GM Chris Mullin built this Golden State team, he must have envisioned it looking better at the end. With players like Derek Fisher, Baron Davis, Jason Richardsen, Mike Dunleavy, Troy Murphy and Adonal Foyle locked up long term with large contracts, there is little salary space for Mullin to work with. Looking at that list, there is a lot of mediocrity there. The team as it is presently constructed seems destined to be perpetually on the playoff bubble, unless changes are made.

This trade allows Mullin to dump one of those overpriced contracts (Fisher) and an extemporaneous big man in exchange for two picks and one of the most gifted players in the league. If Darius Miles could play up to his full potential in Golden State, he could really help take them to the next level.

Why Golden State doesn't make this trade:

Problems abound here. Firstly, with Baron Davis usually either playing through injuries, or just sitting out with injuries, Derek Fisher was the starting point guard for the Warriors more often than not in the last two years. Unless Mullin thinks that Davis is going to be more healthy in the future, or that young prospect Monta Ellis will be ready soon to play real minutes at the point, the Warriors can't afford to give up Fisher without getting another starting quality PG.

Secondly, while the Warriors have depth at the big man positions (Foyle, Murphy, Ike Diogu and Zabarkaba if his heart troubles stay settled), none of that is overwhelmingly good, and they aren't so deep that they couldn't find 12-14 minutes/game for Biedrins. The young Latvian in that time last season put up per 40 minute averages of 10.2 points, 11.4 boards and almost 2.0 blocks. His FT shooting is atrocious (about 30% last year!), but the kid plays tough under the basket and contests shots, and is still very young. He is no throw in caliber asset.

Last but not least, in return for those players that GS does use, they get Darius Miles. Miles plays the same position as Mike Dunleavy, who is locked up long term, with hot prospect Mickael Pietrus also getting some minutes at the 3 spot. Miles is a greater talent than them, but as the Clippers, the Cavaliers and the Trailblazers all discovered, there is something not quite right about the kid. Especially in Portland, he has shown inconsistent flashes of his great potential surrounded by glaring examples of chemistry-killing bad attitude. Sometimes a change of scene helps players like that, and other times it just placates them for a short while, and ends up blowing up in the new team's face. Certainly Chris Mullin would be aware and afraid of this possibility.

Why Portland makes this trade:

The Blazers would love to get rid of Miles and actually get something in return. The bad relations between the coach, the player, the media and the fans (take your pick who you want to blame), have poisoned the well so thoroughly that Miles cannot stay in Portland. After playing very well at the start of the 2005-2006 season, Miles went out with a knee injury, and came back as a shell of his former self. A late season tirade to the local newspaper, where Miles blamed everyone but himself for his poor effort and all other problems, really underscored the need for Miles and the Blazers to part ways.

At the end of the tough previous season in Portland, Coach Nate McMillan publicly asked management to get him some help, in the form of a veteran guard. This statement was echoed by PF Zach Randolph and C Theo Ratliff as well. While a real all-star is probably out of reach for the assets Portland has, a just having a capable veteran like Fisher could go a long ways towards getting the team playing "the right way" (one of Coach Nate's favorite expressions).

With free agent C Joel Przybilla possibly leaving at the end of the season, the depth in the frontcourt is pretty thin. Zach Randolph and Theo Ratliff would be the often injured starting line, with Brian Skinner and young raw prospect Ha Seung-Jin as the only backups so far. A young big man like Biedrins would be able not only to find minutes in Portland, but make a contribution.

Also, with the team already as young as it is, they are less reluctant to give up some draft picks. As the roster stands now, they might not have the roster spots to retain all three picks they hold in this years drafts anyhow.

Why Portland doesn't make this trade:

There are only two major hangups in this trade for Portland. The first is that Derek Fisher is a point guard, and that is the one position on the roster where Portland actually has good depth, with three capable young players in Sebastien Telfair, Steve Blake and Jarrett Jack. Already there is grumbling about playing time, and adding Derek Fisher would help the team next year, but lead to more conflict and perhaps stunted development of the younger guards.

The other issue is that it is very unwise for a bad team to not get a lot in return for its draft picks. The #30 and #31 picks in this year's draft are not tremendously valuable, but Portland doesn't expect to suddenly become good next year, even with this trade, so an unprotected future first rounder should be out of the question. What pick and conditions would Portland GM John Nash be willing to give to make this deal happen, and what would Chris Mullin accept? There may not be room for agreement there.

The Verdict:

This trade won't happen as is. The problems for both teams are too substantial. However, some modifications could serve to make something happen. The main thing Portland wants is Biedrins, and GS wants to send out a long-term contract attached to a middling player. Fisher is valuable to them, and could be valuable to any number of bad teams that need a starting PG (Atlanta, Houston, etc.), or perhaps to a playoff team that wants a battle-tested veteran backup (the Lakers would love to have him back). Getting a third team involved opens up nearly limitless possibilities. Portland might also be able to replace Fisher for GS by sending one of their young PGs to Oakland. Or perhaps, they could take Mike Dunleavy's bloated contract in exchange for Miles, essentially trading starting SFs and other considerations. But in any case, the trade as it stands doesn't work well for either team, and requires substantial revision.

ESPN.com sucks! Get a new stylesheet!

Does anyone else find it irritating that ESPN pages take so long to load? They put all this crap on the page that takes a few seconds to render on my computer.

Here is an example, the Shawn Marion player page on ESPN.com

Compare that to the same page on Yahoo Sports:

I think we should boycott ESPN.com until they get a real programmer (as opposed to a marketing guy) to design their style sheets. I am happy however that ESPN seems to have set the embedded video on their main page to default to "off". I really disliked opening the page and being assaulted by the broken noise of whatever was playing in the tiny box.

Draft Prediction - Top 8

As of today, this is how I see the draft unfolding, assuming the team's picked in the most probable order and nobody makes any trades:

1. Portland - LaMarcus Aldridge: a combo big man and by some estimates the safest pick in the draft. With Joel Przybilla likely leaving, young LaMarcus may be forced into immediate duty at the C and backup PF positions. He will have a tough first year in Nate's demanding offensive system, but if he survives it mentally intact, he will be stronger for it going forward.

2. Chicago - Andrea Bargnani: They would have loved to get Aldridge or to trade their pick, but in this position they would likely pick Bargnani. They need a post up scoring PF, so they will have to try to teach AB to be that.

3. Charlotte - Tyrus Thomas: In some recent drafts they have appeared to favor proven college players, which is why many boards have them picking Morrison, but by draft time everyone will have soured on Morrison. Charlotte the expansion franchise will remain patient and take the hard working and promising freshman from LSU.

4. Atlanta - Marcus Williams: They are reaching here, but they do not need another SF (Gay or Morrison) and are desperate for a true PG. With all the pre-draft workout buzz surrounding Marcus Williams they will surprise many with this pick, but should be happy with it as the years go on. The question is what will they write on the back of their uniforms to differentiate Marcus Williams from Marvin Williams?

5. Toronto - Brandon Roy: Like the other teams in the top 5, TOR would love to get a veteran in trade for their pick, or be able to draft a big man, but as this board falls out, they would take Brandon Roy. They are rumored to be shopping Mo Pete and his defensive deficiencies, and Roy could effectively step into the SG spot and be a nice piece to the core of James/Calderon/Bell at PG and Villanueva and Bosh at forward.

6. Minnesota - Rudy Gay: The T-Wolves could use players at nearly any position, so they will take a chance on the guy with the most potential in the whole draft, who falls to them at #6. With KG growing more unhappy each passing year, Minny hopes this pick is a home run.

7. Boston Celtics - Adam Morrison: Yet another team that could use a veteran in trade or a solid big man who has to compromise. Predicted to go much higher, Danny Ainge is still happy to have Adam Morrison fall to him.

8. Houston Rockets - Rodney Carney: The Rockets would have loved to had Marcus Williams fall to them, but given what is available, they take Rodney Carney. His upside is good, and he should be able to step on the court and contribute right away in Houston, either playing minutes at SG or backing up T-Mac at SF if and when his back goes out again.

Thoughts?

Trade Factory - Ratliff and Blake for Eddie Jones

In the O-live blazer blog, there was recently a link to an ESPN chat with Chris Sheridan that suggested the possibility of trading Zach Randolph to Memphis for Eddie Jones (look just a little down from the top, May 12th). While that trade specifically makes no sense at all for the Blazers or the Grizz, it got me thinking about Eddie Jones.

Coach Nate specifically requested some veteran help at guard. Jones is such a guard, who plays smart, plays decent defense and can hit an open three. He is probably about the best player we could realistically get without giving up our top pick.

With Mike Miller and Shane Battier potentially holding down the 2 and 3 positions, and with Bobby Jackson, Chucky Atkins and Lorenzen Wright potentially leaving and Damon Stoudemire coming off injury, the Grizz might look to move Jones and his big expiring salary for immediate help at the 1 and 5 positions.

So it seems to me a trade of Steve Blake and Theo Ratliff for Eddie Jones makes sense for both teams. To get their veteran guard and a chance at cap space when Jones's contract expires at the end of the year, the Blazers give up a smart and effective but extemporaneous young PG and an aging and overpaid and often injured center.

The downside for Memphis, besides giving up a good player, is that they take on more salary obligations for the 2007-2008 season, and they risk having Theo injured and unable to contribute during the next two years. On the salary front, they probably won't be able to get under the cap until at least 2010 without some major cap clearing moves, so it's a matter of whether their ownership is willing to tolerate that level of payroll. Also, they would still have to look for another passable center to account for the possibility of injury to Ratliff.

However, in my opinion, Theo along with Blake could be two very great backups for them, and this trade makes sense for both teams.

Blazers lineup:

• PG: Telfair, Jack
• SG: Jones, Dixon
  
• SF: Webster, Khryapa, Outlaw
• PF: Zach, Aldridge/Bargnani/Thomas
• C: Skinner, Ha, ?
  

Miles to the Hornets?

A hoopsworld writer, who seems to imply that he is a Hornets fan, suggests that NOOKie should offer Portland Desmond Mason, Arvydas Macijauskas, and an unspecified first round pick for Darius Miles. Where do we sign up?

Darius is obviously talented, but would NOOK really want his contract and his attitude with that talent? They actually wouldn't be giving up much. Mason is talented but not that great, and his contract is expiring (the best part for Portland). Arvydas Macije-chacha is some undrafted scrub who inexplicably has a $2.5mil/yr contract with two more years on it. The pick would probably be too much to ask for, but even without we would be trading our disgruntled and overpaid SF for another SF who is nearly guaranteed to play hard, since he is playing for his next contract.

I don't think it's realistic, but it's nice to know at least someone in the world thinks Miles actually has value.

Past Blazers in the Playoffs - a quickie analysis

Astute observers of the NBA playoffs may have noticed that there seem to be a lot of former Trailblazers in them. Did every active former Blazer make it to the second season? No, but it's close. Pinwheel has manually compiled a list of active former Trailblazers and noted which made and did not make the playoffs. As this was done manually, there may be one or two missing, so leave a comment if you think of one.

Didn't make the playoffs:

(7 players) Alvin Williams, Rick Brunson, Dan Dickau, Matt Carroll, Richie Frahm, Stacey Augmon, Qyntel Woods

Made the playoffs:

(19 players) Damon Stoudamire, Nick Van Excel, Eddie Gill, Jeff McInnis, Antonio Daniels, Bonzi Wells, Jim Jackson, Derek Anderson, Aaron McKie, Ruben Patterson, Sergei Monia, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Rasheed Wallace, Jermaine O'Neal, Scott Padgett, Cliff Robinson, Kelvin Cato, Dale Davis, Brian Grant

There are 16 teams in the playoffs, out of 29 non-Blazer teams. From that proportion alone (16/29ths), if there was a random distribution we would expect to see 14.34 former blazers out of the 26 reach in the postseason. A quick CHI-squared test (statisticians correct me if that is inappropriate or incorrect) gives us a value of 1.82 and a p-value of less than or equal to 0.20, but greater than 0.10 (I believe that's a two tailed P-value, but was too lazy to pursue it further). That isn't statistically significant by most standards, but it is suggestive.

What that means is we pick at random, there is less than a 10% chance of getting 19 or more out of 26 randomly selected non-blazer players in the playoffs. It seems there is are a disproportionate number of former pinwheel wearers in the postseason.

Why is that? The skips scap scalleywags and haters in the forum seem to believe that it simply means the present blazer management is incompetent and has given away all our great players that went on to lead their teams to the postseason. Is this true, or does some other factor account for the variance from expected?

When looking at the list realistically, it doesn't appear that many of them have actually made a difference as to whether their team actually made the playoffs. In fact, I can only think of two that if you took them off their bubble teams (forgetting for a second that the team would have gone on to sign someone else) it would have cost them a playoff berth: Jermaine O'Neal and Bonzi Wells.

It seems as though most of those former blazers that are now on playoff squads actively selected winning teams to resign with. Damon, NVE, McInnis, Daniels, Jackson, McKie, SAR, Rasheed, Cliffy, DD, and Grant all could have played for any number of teams, but they picked to go to good ones, many for less money than they could have gotten elsewhere.

Rather than their making the playoffs because the Blazers gave talent away for nothing, I think what we are witnessing here is the fact that older playoff tested veterans get to choose which teams they go to, and they choose winners, which accounts for the distribution we see this year.

Greetings Blazer Fans!

Welcome to my newest blog! In case anyone was wondering what I look like ... that's a real-live actual photo of me.