Pick #31 - Mike Gansey

This isn't a prediction, since the Trailblazers didn't even bring Gansey in for a workout, but rather a recommendation. Gansey is a high b-ball IQ type player, a hard worker, a good rebounder and a very good shooter. The knocks on him are his height (6-4, small for an NBA SG) and his severe lack of athletecism. The way I see it though, he would replace what Voshon Lenard brought to the team last year. Many people didn't notice, since Lenard came in at the forefront of a horrendous finish to the season, but his veteran presence, smart play and outside shooting really helped the offense run. With Lenard leaving for free agency, I see Gansey being able to substantially replicate those contributions.

Final Draft Mock

Here it is, the last mock draft before the actual draft. As has everyone else's, my mocks have been all over the place as the workouts progress and the rumors fly.

Of course, between now and the time the draftees actually play for their teams, trades could take place to completely alter the draft landscape. One particularly jarring possibility would have Toronto sending their pick + Charlie Villanueva + Morris Peterson to Seattle for Ray Allen and another asset(s) (possibly a big man, Luke Ridnour and/or the #10 pick). Changing the top of the draft would really muss up everyone else's expectations.

Another rumor that seemed to have legs had Houston and Atlanta swapping picks, with Houston giving up Luther Head in the process, if Brandon Roy is still available when Atlanta picks 5th. Houston would then take Shelden Williams for Atlanta.

However, right now it appears that no trades will take place, and with that assumption, here's how it might play out.

Toronto Raptors - Andrea Bargnani: For a while, I figured they would take LaMarcus Aldridge with their pick, since he appears to be Chris Bosh's favorite, but the Rasho Nesterovic trade seemed to mediate their need for another center. So we go back to the long-time conventional wisdom that says they take Bargnani, play him at SF, and look to trade Charlie V when a good offer arises. Bargnani is the kind of flexible position 3pt shooting big man that just screams out "Phoenix-style", which is what they are trying to build now in Toronto. The most likely alternate pick for the Raptors would be Adam Morrison

Chicago Bulls - Tyrus Thomas: Chicago's biggest needs are at SG and PF, but I think they will go for possibly the best (future) player available and take Thomas. He's a hard working and intense player, just like Bulls coach Scott Skiles, and can contribute at PF. While his offense develops, his defense will keep him on the floor. Alridge or Roy would be better fits for the Bulls, but Paxson knows that patience is a virtue when it comes to draft picks.

Charlotte Bobcats - Brandon Roy: What Bernie Bickerstaff has done in previous drafts is prove that he prefers proven college players, and Brandon Roy is exactly that. He can shoot, score, drive, dish and defend, and will contribute immediately for the 'Cats at SG. Alternate possibilities include Morrison and Rudy Gay, but Roy provides Charlotte with a nice blend of proven talent, remaining upside, various skills and fulfilling a team need.

Portland Trailblazers - LaMarcus Aldridge: The Blazers will be ecstatic if the best big man in the draft falls to them. Aldridge has a nice balance of skills, and a great attitude to match. In a recent interview he remarked about how he didn't like to go to clubs or go out drinking, that he'd rather be in the gym, and for a team and town struggling with a lingering "Jailblazer" image, that kind of guy will do a lot to remove the stain. With center Joel Przybilla likely leaving for free agency, Aldridge also fulfills a major team need. Other players considered by the Blazers are Rudy Gay and Adam Morrison.

Atlanta Hawks - Shelden Williams: Nobody ever accused the Hawks of making great draft picks, and this pick will raise eyebrows, even though it is widely expected. The Hawks need an inside presence at PF, and Williams fills it nicely. He doesn't have nearly the upside of other players in this region of the draft, but look for Atlanta GM Billy Knight to wear a smug smile later in the season when Williams is a legitimate Rookie of the Year contender. Others considered for this pick possibly include Marcus Williams and Randy Foye.

Minnesota Timberwolves - Adam Morrison: The T-wolves are in a woeful situation, with sad superstar Kevin Garnett surrounded by a group of mostly overpaid and flawed players, with the team having no caproom to make improvements where needed (which is every position except PF). They want help now, and with Garnett the type of star who loves to pass, they'll look for someone in the draft who is NBA ready now and who loves to shoot. That's Adam Morrison. Others considered here include Marcus Williams and Rudy Gay.

Boston Celtics - Randy Foye: After Dwayne Wade's dramatic MVP performance in the recent NBA finals, everyone is asking, who is the next Wade? If there is one in this draft, it's Foye. The knock on him is that he isn't a true point, but at Villanova, he wasn't asked to be. His moderate point guard skills combined with his exceptional scoring skills and good defense will keep him on the floor at one of the guard positions. He isn't the best fit in Boston, but he will be a great player.

Houston Rockets - Rudy Gay: The best fit for the Rockets probably would be a guard, Williams, Roy or Foye, but if Rudy Gay falls this far, they will pick him up, despite the fact that he plays the same position as Tracy McGrady. Somehow they will fit it together (easily in fact if McGrady spends another half season injured), and getting a potential superstar this late in the draft will be seen as a blessing in future years.

Next likely to be picked, in no particular order: Marcus Williams, Rodney Carney and Patrick O'Bryant (who will be considered a huge bust for the first few years).

Bonus: Blazers late picks predictions!

Assuming they don't trade the picks, the Blazers have the #30 and #31 selection in the draft. Due to roster constraints, one of them will be a foreigner. The other one will be someone who fills a need. With that in mind, and after working out half of all the prospects in the draft,

With the 30th pick in the draft, the Portland Trailblazers select,

Joel Freeland, PF from England: Freeland is a 19 year old raw and athletic big man who has only been playing basketball for 3 years. Nevertheless, he impressed scouts at the European pre-draft combine with a good attitude and an array of offensive skills, including a jumper out to the Euro 3pt line. Look for the Blazers to take Freeland and leave him overseas for a couple years.

With the 31st pick in the draft, the Portland Trailblazers select,

Leon Powe, PF from the University of California: For an NBA PF, Powe is a little short, but he is large and very strong, and is a proven post player at the college level. The main thing keeping him from being a higher pick is that he has undergone two major knee surgeries. However, with the nonguaranteed contract that comes from picking in the second round, the Blazers will make a smart gamble that Powe will be able to step up as the 2nd or 3rd string backup to Zach Randolph at power forward and contribute, and perhaps be more down the road.

The 31st pick is the toughest to predict, since there is no certainty regarding who will be available or what the team's actual needs will be after the 1st round picks are made. Look for PJ Tucker, Bobby Brown, Marcus Vinicius, James Augustine or Paul Davis all to potentially be the one selected with the Blazers last pick.

What good are late picks?

With the Blazers presently still in possession of the #30 and #31 picks, the last of the 1st round and the 1st pick of the 2nd round, a major question for pinwheel fans is; what can we expect to get for these picks?

There are a few rumors floating around. One has us trading up both of the picks for the #23 from NJ, which would be pretty good. Another has us combining Miles and one or both picks to get an expiring contract and a mid-1st round pick, potentially from a team like the Hornets (#15) or the Knicks (#20).

Assuming we use the picks, can we expect to get a good player? Just for fun I looked back on the last few draft years to see how those picks bracketing the 1st round-2nd round border have panned out recently. I was a little surprised.

2005: David Lee and Salim Stoudamire
2004: David Harrison and Anderson Varejao
2003: Josh Howard and Maciej Lampe
2002: Dan Dickau and Steve Logan
2001: Tony Parker and Trenton Hassell
2000: Mark Madsen and Marko Jaric
1999: Leon Smith and John Celestand
1998: Nazr Mohammed and Ansu Sesay

More than half of those guys went on to be real contributors to NBA teams, especially the more recent ones. Tony Parker and Josh Howard turned out to be pretty good players and important cogs on deep playoff teams. While it's probably not realistic to expect to get a great or even a good player with those late picks, history shows that it's clearly not impossible either.

Now the Blazers have an issue regarding these picks. With 12 players under contract next seasons, not counting free agents Voshon Lenard and Joel Przybilla, using all three draft picks would put the team right at the 15 man roster limit. That would leave them no space to sign Joel, or another free agent center, or the veteran guard that Coach McMillan has specifically requested.

What's likely to happen, if we don't trade the picks, is the Blazers will draft at least one foreign player who is under contract overseas, and leave him there to develop for a season or more. That allows us to use the draft pick to still get some potential for the future, but not use up the roster space or the money waiting for the guy to develop.

With that in mind, the only likely candidates for our foreign play are:

• PF Oleksiy Pecherov - A raw and athletic Ukrainian, playing in France. He's big and tall but he plays a face-up game.
  
• PF Joel Freeland - A en even more raw athletic big man from England. He impressed many at the European pre-draft combine enough to shoot up the draft chart from obscurity to projected early 2nd round pick. Has only been playing basketball 3 years, but reportedly has both shooting range out to the international 3 line and a nascent post up game.

I guess that's it. I would have included SF Marcus Vinicius from Brazil on this list, and with a developed offensive game he could be an asset to the Blazers, but reportedly his Euroleague contract has expired, so whoever drafts him would have to take him. Other foreign possibilities include C Saer Sene, SG Thabo Sefolosha and PG Sergio Rodriguez, but it's likely all of them will be gone in the first 29 picks. However, if any of those three drops, look for the Blazers to eagerly snatch him up with #30/#31.

As for domestic prospects, the Blazers will probably look to fill a need based on who is drafted earlier. My favorites include:

• PF Leon Powe, Cal - An undersized but very productive PF from the PAC-10 conference. The major reason he would even be available late is because he has already had two major knee surgeries. However, with second round picks having non-guaranteed contracts, it would be a great gamble for the Blazers to pick him up with the #31 pick, to be slotted in at the backup PF position immediately.
• SF PJ Tucker, Texas - Another undersized player. At 6'5", he played PF in college, but would probably move to the SF position in the pros. He is a tough, a balls-out player who is a tremendous rebounder. Last year at Texas he was the team's leading rebounder in fact (9.5/game), ahead of big man LaMarcus Aldridge. Projects to be a poor man's Bonzi Wells.

Wade and Roy's college stats

here is a comparison of their respective stats from their last year in college (some numbers rounded):

Wade: 21.5 ppg, 50% FG, 31% 3PT, 6.3 RPG, 4.4 APG, 1.3 BPG, 2.2 SPG

Roy: 20.2 PPG, 51% FG, 40% 3PT, 5.6 RPG, 4.1 APG, 0.8 BPG, 1.4 SPG

Wade is definitely more athletic, but Roy put up almost the same numbers in college, although those are Roy's senior numbers compared to Wade as a soph.

I just thought it is interesting to note. Someone in the O-live forum asked, after watching Wade in the clinching game 6 of this year's finals, "who is the Wade in this draft" (or something to that effect). Which college player has the best chance to jump out and dominate the league? I still think that Gay has the most superstar potential, and Aldridge is my second choice for Portland's #4 pick (even if he won't ever be a superstar), but there is definitely some similarity between Wade's numbers and Roy's. That's all.

June Fresh Mock Draft

Since the draft lottery, there has already been moving and shaking of expectations about the draft picks. Some teams have revealed bits about their intentions, and some players' workouts have forced them to be recognized. Many draft boards were written right when the ping pong balls settled, but at this time most of them are looking stale and lethargic. So for this mock, I tried to ignore the mock-draft inertia and make freshly thought out picks, with some surprising results. Here is an updated prediction for how the top of the draft may unfold:

1. Toronto Raptors - Andrea Bargnani: This is no surprise to draft watchers. Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo was brought to Toronto after a successful stint building the Phoenix Suns into the most fun team in the league, utilizing a European-style system with a veteran Euroleague coach. Presumably, he will be installing a similar system in Toronto, and has already begun by hiring Maurizio Gherardini from Benetton Treviso. While that happens to be Bargnani's euroleague team, I don't think the hiring is linked to the draft pick, other than that a sweet shooting and mobile 7' Italian would create the kind of matchup problems for defenses that the Phoenix Suns have been enjoying all year.

2. Chicago Bulls - Tyrus Thomas: This guy came out of nowhere, had a great end of the season and tourney to rocket up to #1 on most boards, and then fell out of favor again. Many people see how raw his offense is, and how undersized he appears for the PF position in the NBA, and let doubts set in. Those things are real concerns, but I imagine Thomas becoming something of an Andre Kirilenko type player - a guy who is capable on offense, but who is really defined by his omnipresent spider-monster defense. Thomas's reportedly hard working nature should also fit in well with Bulls coach Scott Skiles.

3. Charlotte Bobcats - Rudy Gay: Charlotte is the big mystery team. What do they need and what do they want? Bernie Bickerstaff, both the general manager and the coach of the 'Cats, certainly is a major fan of hard work, as evidenced by his ejection of Kareem Rush from the team at the end of last season. The move didn't save them any money or affect the rest of the roster, since Rush's contract was set to expire, he just did it to set an example. Bickerstaff's team has PG Raymond Felton, swingman Gerald Wallace, and big man Emeka Okafor as the primary core. What that core seems to lack is great outside shooting and a post player.

Adam Morrison is a tempting pick (and is at #3 on most boards at the moment), because he can hit the long ball and fits in with Bickerstaff's previous draft proclivities towards hard-working players with college experience. LaMarcus Aldridge is also a tempting pick here, since his post game would add a neeeded dimension to the Bobcats offense, and since big men don't grow on trees.

However, I've slotted Gay into this position because he is perhaps the best all-around talent in the draft. While not a sharpshooter, he is a true wing player, so should fit in fine in Charlotte, with Gerald Wallace moving to the 2 slot. Bickerstaff is reportedly buddies with UConn coach Jim Calhoun, and assuming that Calhoun gives Gay the endorsement, the young forward could follow Okafor to Charlotte.

4. Portland Trailblazers - LaMarcus Aldridge: This is the guy Portland probably would have taken #1 if they had lucked out in the lottery, so if the big man falls that far, the Blazers will snatch him right up. Questions abound about Aldridge's toughness and motivation, but with C Joel Przybilla probably leaving, C Theo Ratliff potentially being traded for financial reasons, and PF Zach Randolph playing on a repaired knee and having attitude problems, the Blazers are desperate for help, talent and potential at the big man positions.

5. Atlanta Hawks - Marcus Williams: I was very early at tabbing Williams as the #5 pick (in the mock draft before last), and I'm coming back to it now. They desperately need a true PG in ATL, and Williams is burning up the workout scene. They also do not need a SF under any circumstances. Randy Foye is a tempting option for them, and while he is very good, he is not a true point guard.


6. Minnesota Timberwolves - Adam Morrison: Rabid Morrison fans are probably burning up just reading this, seeing that I have him falling to 6th. Minnesota like Charlotte is a team with many needs. The PF position is locked up, and everything else could be upgraded. They need a real C badly, but few are available in this draft, and they won't reach for O'Bryant with the #6 pick. Marcus Banks is promising at point, and Ricky Davis is the incumbent at one of the swing positions. They will take Morrison because he is a proven college scorer and should complement the ball-sharing offensive style of Kevin Garnett very well. Will this give fans in Minnesota Wally Szczerbiak flashbacks? Maybe a little.

7. Boston Celtics - Patrick O'bryant: It is tempting to just say that Boston will draft O'Bryant for his Irish sounding name, but there is actual reasoning behind it. The C's are pretty much set at the GF positions, with Paul Pierce, Wally Szczerbiak, Ryan Gomes and Gerald Green. Delonte West is a capable young point man, but while Boston would sure be willing to upgrade the PG position, Foye would not be a good fit and no other great PGs remain. O'Bryant is very talented but very raw, and Danny Ainge has been patiently building a young team for the future. Kedrick Perkins, Al Jefferson and Raef LaFrentz are the present big men in Boston, but all of them are really PFs playing out of position at the 5, so O'Bryant can be brought in as the future at center for the celtics.

8. Houston Rockets - Brandon Roy: The second major unexpected fall (after Morrison), Brandon Roy finally lands with the Rockets at #8. The Rockets are yet another team with needs at multiple positions. Besides Yao at center, they need help everywhere else. They are tempted to take Rodney Carney, who is reportedly working out with Tracy McGrady, and Shelden Williams, to replace the aging Juwon Howard and the disappointing Stro Swift at PF and backup C. They are even more tempted to take Randy Foye, since the Rockets could use a good point guard. But again, Foye is no true PG, and if they are going to take a swingman and if Roy actually falls this far, they would go with Roy. He is big enough to be a true shooting guard, which in my opinion is their weakest position, and his all around play would be of great help to the woeful Rockets. They need better offense, better defense, better shooting and smarter overall play, and Roy gives them something in each category.

Likely next picks, in no particular order: Randy Foye, Sergio Rodriguez, Shelden Williams, Cedric Simmons.