Rumor Mill - Trade Miles for Fisher and Biedrins?

A poster in the chat room with anonymous sourcing posted this trade today, rumored to be in talks right now, that would send Darius Miles, one of Portland's late draft picks this year (#30 or #31) and a future pick to Golden State for Derek Fisher and Andres Biedrins. It sounds plausible, because there are aspects to like and dislike for both teams.

Why Golden State makes this trade:

When GM Chris Mullin built this Golden State team, he must have envisioned it looking better at the end. With players like Derek Fisher, Baron Davis, Jason Richardsen, Mike Dunleavy, Troy Murphy and Adonal Foyle locked up long term with large contracts, there is little salary space for Mullin to work with. Looking at that list, there is a lot of mediocrity there. The team as it is presently constructed seems destined to be perpetually on the playoff bubble, unless changes are made.

This trade allows Mullin to dump one of those overpriced contracts (Fisher) and an extemporaneous big man in exchange for two picks and one of the most gifted players in the league. If Darius Miles could play up to his full potential in Golden State, he could really help take them to the next level.

Why Golden State doesn't make this trade:

Problems abound here. Firstly, with Baron Davis usually either playing through injuries, or just sitting out with injuries, Derek Fisher was the starting point guard for the Warriors more often than not in the last two years. Unless Mullin thinks that Davis is going to be more healthy in the future, or that young prospect Monta Ellis will be ready soon to play real minutes at the point, the Warriors can't afford to give up Fisher without getting another starting quality PG.

Secondly, while the Warriors have depth at the big man positions (Foyle, Murphy, Ike Diogu and Zabarkaba if his heart troubles stay settled), none of that is overwhelmingly good, and they aren't so deep that they couldn't find 12-14 minutes/game for Biedrins. The young Latvian in that time last season put up per 40 minute averages of 10.2 points, 11.4 boards and almost 2.0 blocks. His FT shooting is atrocious (about 30% last year!), but the kid plays tough under the basket and contests shots, and is still very young. He is no throw in caliber asset.

Last but not least, in return for those players that GS does use, they get Darius Miles. Miles plays the same position as Mike Dunleavy, who is locked up long term, with hot prospect Mickael Pietrus also getting some minutes at the 3 spot. Miles is a greater talent than them, but as the Clippers, the Cavaliers and the Trailblazers all discovered, there is something not quite right about the kid. Especially in Portland, he has shown inconsistent flashes of his great potential surrounded by glaring examples of chemistry-killing bad attitude. Sometimes a change of scene helps players like that, and other times it just placates them for a short while, and ends up blowing up in the new team's face. Certainly Chris Mullin would be aware and afraid of this possibility.

Why Portland makes this trade:

The Blazers would love to get rid of Miles and actually get something in return. The bad relations between the coach, the player, the media and the fans (take your pick who you want to blame), have poisoned the well so thoroughly that Miles cannot stay in Portland. After playing very well at the start of the 2005-2006 season, Miles went out with a knee injury, and came back as a shell of his former self. A late season tirade to the local newspaper, where Miles blamed everyone but himself for his poor effort and all other problems, really underscored the need for Miles and the Blazers to part ways.

At the end of the tough previous season in Portland, Coach Nate McMillan publicly asked management to get him some help, in the form of a veteran guard. This statement was echoed by PF Zach Randolph and C Theo Ratliff as well. While a real all-star is probably out of reach for the assets Portland has, a just having a capable veteran like Fisher could go a long ways towards getting the team playing "the right way" (one of Coach Nate's favorite expressions).

With free agent C Joel Przybilla possibly leaving at the end of the season, the depth in the frontcourt is pretty thin. Zach Randolph and Theo Ratliff would be the often injured starting line, with Brian Skinner and young raw prospect Ha Seung-Jin as the only backups so far. A young big man like Biedrins would be able not only to find minutes in Portland, but make a contribution.

Also, with the team already as young as it is, they are less reluctant to give up some draft picks. As the roster stands now, they might not have the roster spots to retain all three picks they hold in this years drafts anyhow.

Why Portland doesn't make this trade:

There are only two major hangups in this trade for Portland. The first is that Derek Fisher is a point guard, and that is the one position on the roster where Portland actually has good depth, with three capable young players in Sebastien Telfair, Steve Blake and Jarrett Jack. Already there is grumbling about playing time, and adding Derek Fisher would help the team next year, but lead to more conflict and perhaps stunted development of the younger guards.

The other issue is that it is very unwise for a bad team to not get a lot in return for its draft picks. The #30 and #31 picks in this year's draft are not tremendously valuable, but Portland doesn't expect to suddenly become good next year, even with this trade, so an unprotected future first rounder should be out of the question. What pick and conditions would Portland GM John Nash be willing to give to make this deal happen, and what would Chris Mullin accept? There may not be room for agreement there.

The Verdict:

This trade won't happen as is. The problems for both teams are too substantial. However, some modifications could serve to make something happen. The main thing Portland wants is Biedrins, and GS wants to send out a long-term contract attached to a middling player. Fisher is valuable to them, and could be valuable to any number of bad teams that need a starting PG (Atlanta, Houston, etc.), or perhaps to a playoff team that wants a battle-tested veteran backup (the Lakers would love to have him back). Getting a third team involved opens up nearly limitless possibilities. Portland might also be able to replace Fisher for GS by sending one of their young PGs to Oakland. Or perhaps, they could take Mike Dunleavy's bloated contract in exchange for Miles, essentially trading starting SFs and other considerations. But in any case, the trade as it stands doesn't work well for either team, and requires substantial revision.