Tuesday, June 27, 2006

Final Draft Mock

Here it is, the last mock draft before the actual draft. As has everyone else's, my mocks have been all over the place as the workouts progress and the rumors fly.

Of course, between now and the time the draftees actually play for their teams, trades could take place to completely alter the draft landscape. One particularly jarring possibility would have Toronto sending their pick + Charlie Villanueva + Morris Peterson to Seattle for Ray Allen and another asset(s) (possibly a big man, Luke Ridnour and/or the #10 pick). Changing the top of the draft would really muss up everyone else's expectations.

Another rumor that seemed to have legs had Houston and Atlanta swapping picks, with Houston giving up Luther Head in the process, if Brandon Roy is still available when Atlanta picks 5th. Houston would then take Shelden Williams for Atlanta.

However, right now it appears that no trades will take place, and with that assumption, here's how it might play out.

Toronto Raptors - Andrea Bargnani: For a while, I figured they would take LaMarcus Aldridge with their pick, since he appears to be Chris Bosh's favorite, but the Rasho Nesterovic trade seemed to mediate their need for another center. So we go back to the long-time conventional wisdom that says they take Bargnani, play him at SF, and look to trade Charlie V when a good offer arises. Bargnani is the kind of flexible position 3pt shooting big man that just screams out "Phoenix-style", which is what they are trying to build now in Toronto. The most likely alternate pick for the Raptors would be Adam Morrison

Chicago Bulls - Tyrus Thomas: Chicago's biggest needs are at SG and PF, but I think they will go for possibly the best (future) player available and take Thomas. He's a hard working and intense player, just like Bulls coach Scott Skiles, and can contribute at PF. While his offense develops, his defense will keep him on the floor. Alridge or Roy would be better fits for the Bulls, but Paxson knows that patience is a virtue when it comes to draft picks.

Charlotte Bobcats - Brandon Roy: What Bernie Bickerstaff has done in previous drafts is prove that he prefers proven college players, and Brandon Roy is exactly that. He can shoot, score, drive, dish and defend, and will contribute immediately for the 'Cats at SG. Alternate possibilities include Morrison and Rudy Gay, but Roy provides Charlotte with a nice blend of proven talent, remaining upside, various skills and fulfilling a team need.

Portland Trailblazers - LaMarcus Aldridge: The Blazers will be ecstatic if the best big man in the draft falls to them. Aldridge has a nice balance of skills, and a great attitude to match. In a recent interview he remarked about how he didn't like to go to clubs or go out drinking, that he'd rather be in the gym, and for a team and town struggling with a lingering "Jailblazer" image, that kind of guy will do a lot to remove the stain. With center Joel Przybilla likely leaving for free agency, Aldridge also fulfills a major team need. Other players considered by the Blazers are Rudy Gay and Adam Morrison.

Atlanta Hawks - Shelden Williams: Nobody ever accused the Hawks of making great draft picks, and this pick will raise eyebrows, even though it is widely expected. The Hawks need an inside presence at PF, and Williams fills it nicely. He doesn't have nearly the upside of other players in this region of the draft, but look for Atlanta GM Billy Knight to wear a smug smile later in the season when Williams is a legitimate Rookie of the Year contender. Others considered for this pick possibly include Marcus Williams and Randy Foye.

Minnesota Timberwolves - Adam Morrison: The T-wolves are in a woeful situation, with sad superstar Kevin Garnett surrounded by a group of mostly overpaid and flawed players, with the team having no caproom to make improvements where needed (which is every position except PF). They want help now, and with Garnett the type of star who loves to pass, they'll look for someone in the draft who is NBA ready now and who loves to shoot. That's Adam Morrison. Others considered here include Marcus Williams and Rudy Gay.

Boston Celtics - Randy Foye: After Dwayne Wade's dramatic MVP performance in the recent NBA finals, everyone is asking, who is the next Wade? If there is one in this draft, it's Foye. The knock on him is that he isn't a true point, but at Villanova, he wasn't asked to be. His moderate point guard skills combined with his exceptional scoring skills and good defense will keep him on the floor at one of the guard positions. He isn't the best fit in Boston, but he will be a great player.

Houston Rockets - Rudy Gay: The best fit for the Rockets probably would be a guard, Williams, Roy or Foye, but if Rudy Gay falls this far, they will pick him up, despite the fact that he plays the same position as Tracy McGrady. Somehow they will fit it together (easily in fact if McGrady spends another half season injured), and getting a potential superstar this late in the draft will be seen as a blessing in future years.

Next likely to be picked, in no particular order: Marcus Williams, Rodney Carney and Patrick O'Bryant (who will be considered a huge bust for the first few years).

Bonus: Blazers late picks predictions!

Assuming they don't trade the picks, the Blazers have the #30 and #31 selection in the draft. Due to roster constraints, one of them will be a foreigner. The other one will be someone who fills a need. With that in mind, and after working out half of all the prospects in the draft,

With the 30th pick in the draft, the Portland Trailblazers select,

Joel Freeland, PF from England:
Freeland is a 19 year old raw and athletic big man who has only been playing basketball for 3 years. Nevertheless, he impressed scouts at the European pre-draft combine with a good attitude and an array of offensive skills, including a jumper out to the Euro 3pt line. Look for the Blazers to take Freeland and leave him overseas for a couple years.

With the 31st pick in the draft, the Portland Trailblazers select,

Leon Powe, PF from the University of California: For an NBA PF, Powe is a little short, but he is large and very strong, and is a proven post player at the college level. The main thing keeping him from being a higher pick is that he has undergone two major knee surgeries. However, with the nonguaranteed contract that comes from picking in the second round, the Blazers will make a smart gamble that Powe will be able to step up as the 2nd or 3rd string backup to Zach Randolph at power forward and contribute, and perhaps be more down the road.

The 31st pick is the toughest to predict, since there is no certainty regarding who will be available or what the team's actual needs will be after the 1st round picks are made. Look for PJ Tucker, Bobby Brown, Marcus Vinicius, James Augustine or Paul Davis all to potentially be the one selected with the Blazers last pick.

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