What good are late picks?

With the Blazers presently still in possession of the #30 and #31 picks, the last of the 1st round and the 1st pick of the 2nd round, a major question for pinwheel fans is; what can we expect to get for these picks?

There are a few rumors floating around. One has us trading up both of the picks for the #23 from NJ, which would be pretty good. Another has us combining Miles and one or both picks to get an expiring contract and a mid-1st round pick, potentially from a team like the Hornets (#15) or the Knicks (#20).

Assuming we use the picks, can we expect to get a good player? Just for fun I looked back on the last few draft years to see how those picks bracketing the 1st round-2nd round border have panned out recently. I was a little surprised.

2005: David Lee and Salim Stoudamire
2004: David Harrison and Anderson Varejao
2003: Josh Howard and Maciej Lampe
2002: Dan Dickau and Steve Logan
2001: Tony Parker and Trenton Hassell
2000: Mark Madsen and Marko Jaric
1999: Leon Smith and John Celestand
1998: Nazr Mohammed and Ansu Sesay

More than half of those guys went on to be real contributors to NBA teams, especially the more recent ones. Tony Parker and Josh Howard turned out to be pretty good players and important cogs on deep playoff teams. While it's probably not realistic to expect to get a great or even a good player with those late picks, history shows that it's clearly not impossible either.

Now the Blazers have an issue regarding these picks. With 12 players under contract next seasons, not counting free agents Voshon Lenard and Joel Przybilla, using all three draft picks would put the team right at the 15 man roster limit. That would leave them no space to sign Joel, or another free agent center, or the veteran guard that Coach McMillan has specifically requested.

What's likely to happen, if we don't trade the picks, is the Blazers will draft at least one foreign player who is under contract overseas, and leave him there to develop for a season or more. That allows us to use the draft pick to still get some potential for the future, but not use up the roster space or the money waiting for the guy to develop.

With that in mind, the only likely candidates for our foreign play are:

• PF Oleksiy Pecherov - A raw and athletic Ukrainian, playing in France. He's big and tall but he plays a face-up game.
  
• PF Joel Freeland - A en even more raw athletic big man from England. He impressed many at the European pre-draft combine enough to shoot up the draft chart from obscurity to projected early 2nd round pick. Has only been playing basketball 3 years, but reportedly has both shooting range out to the international 3 line and a nascent post up game.

I guess that's it. I would have included SF Marcus Vinicius from Brazil on this list, and with a developed offensive game he could be an asset to the Blazers, but reportedly his Euroleague contract has expired, so whoever drafts him would have to take him. Other foreign possibilities include C Saer Sene, SG Thabo Sefolosha and PG Sergio Rodriguez, but it's likely all of them will be gone in the first 29 picks. However, if any of those three drops, look for the Blazers to eagerly snatch him up with #30/#31.

As for domestic prospects, the Blazers will probably look to fill a need based on who is drafted earlier. My favorites include:

• PF Leon Powe, Cal - An undersized but very productive PF from the PAC-10 conference. The major reason he would even be available late is because he has already had two major knee surgeries. However, with second round picks having non-guaranteed contracts, it would be a great gamble for the Blazers to pick him up with the #31 pick, to be slotted in at the backup PF position immediately.
• SF PJ Tucker, Texas - Another undersized player. At 6'5", he played PF in college, but would probably move to the SF position in the pros. He is a tough, a balls-out player who is a tremendous rebounder. Last year at Texas he was the team's leading rebounder in fact (9.5/game), ahead of big man LaMarcus Aldridge. Projects to be a poor man's Bonzi Wells.