Tuesday, May 23, 2006

New NBA draft mock - top 8

With the recent results of the NBA draft lotto having just been announced, and after my Portland Trailblazers got jobbed down to the #4 pick, it's time to reconfigure the mock draft to present realities. So here is the new board:

#1 Toronto Raptors - Andrea Bargnani: Many people might not believe it at first glance, but Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo has a nice job. He has a team that has lost a lot of games in the past, but he has the opportunity to build it anew as he wants, starting with some great young pieces, and now the top pick of the 2006 draft. It is tempting to surmise that he wants to remake the Raptors in the image of the Phoenix Suns, with athletic players at every position and multiple 3 pt-shooters on the floor at all times. Toronto already runs at a very fast pace, so isn't that far away. With Jose Manuel Calderon, Charlie Villanueva, Chris Bosh forming a young core and veterans Mo Pete and Mike James possibly but not certainly staying, the Raptors can burn up the floorboards.

The rumor is that to those pieces Toronto wants to add Andrea Bargnani. This 7-footer has great mobility and is a real 3 pt threat, and a matchup nightmare. This still leaves Toronto with a bunch of quick guards and forwards who are tough to matchup with, but no real center, which is exactly how the Phoenix Suns were built.

#2 Chicago Bulls - LaMarcus Aldridge: The Bulls need a shooting guard and a power forward or center. There is some talk that gritty coach Scott Skiles would like the hard-working, intense and defensively capable Tyrus Thomas, but the Bulls also are in dire need of a post presence to balance out their offense. LaMarcus Aldridge could step into the frontline with offensively challenged FC Tyson Chandler and provide that for them. After they make this draft pick (or even before), the Bulls will be very active in the trade market, so nothing it predictable for them this offseason, but Aldridge makes sense for them right now.

#3 Charlotte Bobcats - Brandon Roy: In the first major surprise of the draft, the Bobcats pick the guard from Washington. 'Cats GM Bernie Bickerstaff will favor experienced college talent and fulfilling a need over the questionable potential of the remaining candidates in the draft. Many expect Morrison to be the pick here, and while that is still possible, Roy is the more well-rounded player by far. Roy is going to look great in the workouts preceding the draft, so won't seem like nearly so much of a reach at #3 as he may appear now.

#4 Portland Trailblazers - Rudy Gay: The Blazers would have loved to draft Aldridge with their pick to shore up their thin (and getting thinner if Joel Przybilla leaves) frontcourt, and give them a Bosh-like cornerstone for the future, but according to the ping-pong balls that isn't to be. Of the players remaining, and actually of all the players in the draft, Rudy Gay has easily the most superstar potential.

Blazers management is known to favor players willing to workout against other players in the pre-draft period (which is why they eschewed more highly rated guys like Chris Paul and Gerald Green in favor of Martell Webster last year), and Rudy Gay has already shown that he is fearless in that regard. He has already targetted Tyrus Thomas, Adam Morrison and Brandon Roy as workout partners ... that is if they are willing to accept the challenge. Also, the Blazers will actively be seeking to trade SF Darius Miles this offseason and beyond, leaving the starting job at the 3 position open.

#5 Atlanta Hawks - Tyrus Thomas: Atlanta needs a true point guard, and they will seriously consider being the second major surprise of the draft and taking Marcus Williams. In the end, however, they will fill their 2nd neediest position by drafting the freshman PF from LSU. His upside is huge, and his energy is great, both of which are important for a rebuilding club. Marvin Williams is a SF, and the Hawks will look to sign and trade Al Harrington, leaving Thomas as the guy at the 4 spot in the ATL.

#6 Minnesota Timberwolves - Adam Morrison: The T-Wolves have Kevin Garnett at PF, and need to upgrade at every other position. With Kevin Garnett being unselfish to a fault sometimes on offense, a true scorer like Morrison could really help spring their offense to life. Many will be surprised that the early favorite for the #1 pick and the college player of the year selection falls this low, but Kevin McHale won't let him fall any farther.

#7 Boston Celtics - Marcus Williams: Celtics GM Danny Ainge is faced with some tough decisions. Barring a trade of swingmen Paul Pierce, Wally Szczerbiak, or Ryan Gomes, the 2 and 3 positions seem locked up long-term in Boston. With Al Jefferson, Kedrick Perkins and Delonte West as the frontrunners for the other three positions, the C's have a lot of middling talent but no clear point of greatest anticipated need. Marcus Williams is going to have great workouts, and is a real pass-first true PG from nearby UConn, so I'm putting him down as the Celtics pick. Also look for the possibility of Danny Ainge taking Brazilian big man Tiago Splitter with this pick, depending on what kind of buyout Splitter's agent appears to have negotiated with his Euroleague team, Tau Vitoria.

#8 Houston Rockets - Mardy Collins: Another team near the top of the draft with many needs and no clear answers. The Rockets have Yao at C, and that is the only position they are happy with. SF Tracy McGrady is great for them, when he plays, but his back problems seem to be sticking around and refusing to leave him alone. Young guards Rafer Alston and Luther Head are talented, but just don't seem to be the answers there. David Wesley and Juwon Howard had nice careers, but they are winding down. Stromile Swift has been a disappointment.

With these needs in mind, I look to the Rockets to draft the big senior guard from Temple. The Rockets will certainly consider Randy Foye with this pick, but even though he is listed at PG, he is more of a small SG, a la Ben Gordon. Collins is a true PG and a mature player, and he lets Head switch to his more natural SG role on offense, while still providing a big body to guard taller 2's on the defensive end. Houston probably would have liked Brandon Roy or Marcus Williams to fall to them here, and will also likely take long looks at Foye, Ronnie Brewer and Rodney Carney, but right now I have them down for Collins.

1 Comments:

At 11:30 AM, Blogger ST said...

Re Boston: They are very tough to predict. They had a pile of PGs this year in West, Dickau, Greene and Tony Allen, but none of them is outstanding. I've heard they like West, but since I can't see them taking a SG or SF, and since no good big men will be available for them, I can't see them not taking a PG. The only alternative for them is to be the team that reaches for a guy like Patrick O'Bryant or Shelden Williams. That could happen, but seems unlikely at the moment.

Re T-Wolves: I see a bit of Wally World in Morrison, so I don't see why Minny wouldn't as well. I don't think they ever totally disliked Wally there, other than the fact that they gave him way too big of a contract. Kevin Garnett is the kind of superstar who doesn't take over an offense and loves to share the ball, and they don't really have a good SF right now (Davis is more of a guard), so the Stache seems like a good fit there. It's also very tough to pass up on a player that was projected to go much higher when he falls that far.

Re the Blazers: I'd take Aldridge first, just because good big men are the hardest to find. He seems like best player available, and he fits our needs. Second choice is tougher. Bargnani is tempting. We haven't seen much of him,but what we've seen is enough for me to make him my second choice. Third is Gay, because he has all the pieces to be a real superstar someday. Fourth is Roy, because he would also be a great fit and because I love multidimensional players. Fifth is Thomas. I didn't have him going higher because while I see a poor man's Kirilenko in his defense, I see too much Kenyon Martin in his offense. I guess Morrison would be after that, but fortunately we will won't have to pick him.

 

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