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Second Round Pick Roundup

2007-04-19T00:11:00.000-07:00

Ok, how many second round picks do we have?

For such a simple question, the answer is numbingly complicated. Here's what I gather from the information on NBAdraft.net:

http://nbadraft.net/draftnotes.asp#2por062806

We have 1 pick of our own. Since we are in a 2-way tie with Minnesota for the 7th worst record, it should be either the 37th or 38th pick. I'm not sure how they break those ties.

We have 1 pick from Indiana, from the James White trade last year. If you are wondering "James Who?", he is the guy who we picked with our 31st pick last season and sent to Indiana in exchange for their 06, 07 and 08 second rounders, and who Indiana just ended up waiving. Don't ask me what they were thinking. That pick is the 42nd.

We have 1 conditional pick from Toronto from [I]the 1997 Chris Dudley trade[/I]. Yes, you read that right. The condition is that it's top 50 protected, but Toronto has done pretty well this year, so it looks like that pick is the 52nd, and it will be coming to us.

We have 1 conditional pick from Chicago as part of the LaMarcus Aldridge - Tyrus Thomas trade. The condition on that pick is that it is owed to San Antonio, but is top 51 protected in that transaction. What that means is that if it falls before 52, then we get it and San Antonio simply gets nothing. If it falls after 51 then the Spurs get it and we get CHIs 2008 pick. It looks to be the 54th pick, so SAS gets it and we get CHIs second round pick next year.

Next year we also are owed another pick from Indiana in the James White trade, with the condition that they get to choose whether it's their own or one they got from Phoenix, so it will probably be Phoenix's. We are also owed a 2008 pick from Memphis as part of the Alexander Johnson trade. He was the guy we picked at #45 with the 06 second rounder we got from Indy in that White trade.

In sum, this year we have picks #37/38, #42, and #52 along with our own lotto pick.

Next year we have our own, Chicago's and Phoenix's second round picks coming to us.

What we will do with all these picks I have no idea.

Who is our best SF?

2006-08-10T15:15:00.000-07:00

With Jack at PG, Roy at SG, Zach at PF and either Joel or Magloire at C, most of the starting lineup for the Blazers appears to be set. The major question is who will play at SF. Do we have a clear best player at the position? To answer this question, I've looked at the post all-star break numbers for our four SFs last year and listed their rankings in each major category.

Here are the post all-star break rankings of our SFs on a per minute basis, from [URL=http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/teams/stats?team=por&sort=fg%&avg=48&order=true&season=2&seasonYear=2006&split=141]ESPN[/URL]:

Scoring: Webster, Miles, Outlaw, Viktor

FG%: Outlaw, Viktor, Miles, Webster

Rebounding: Viktor, Outlaw, Webster, Miles

Assists: Viktor, Miles, Webs, Outlaw

Steals: Miles, Webs, Vik, Outlaw

Blocks: Outlaw, Viktor, Miles, Webster

TOs (lowest to highest): Webster, Outlaw, Miles, Viktor (near tie between Miles and Viktor)

(edit: this used to include A/TO ratios, but I later discovered that ESPNs listing of those stats is screwed up, so I just deleted them.)

Did they shoot above 50% FT? Viktor, Outlaw, Webs - yes, Miles - no.

Can they make threes (somewhat subjective)? Viktor, Outlaw, Webs - yes. Miles - no.

Defensive rankings (even more subjective): Viktor, Miles (not by much over Martel), Webs, Outlaw.

What those who use Miles full season stats to demonstrate that he is clearly the better 3 seem to not realize is that Miles was only a 11.4 ppg 3.7 rpg player after the break. He completely sucked it up on both ends of the court. Some attribute it to injury, but in my estimation it was more due to his deteriorating attitude. From the above lists, it looks like Viktor was our best late season SF. The fact that Nate started him more than any other seems to suggest that he agreed. Unfortunately, Vik is gone now. For the other three, it's nearly a wash between Miles and Webster, with Outlaw trailing only because of his substandard defense, and that's not even factoring the negative effect Miles's attitude has on his teammates.

The question then becomes; which SF do we think will show the biggest improvement from late last season to this one? For Outlaw, his improvement over his three years in the league has been pretty slow, so it's probably not him. If we attribute Miles low production to his injury, then we might expect it to increase next season. As stated before, I attribute it to his bad attitude, and I don't expect that or his play to improve much over the summer. Webster on the other hand, showed a very steep learning curve over the course of last season, and I expect that to continue for the forseeable future, so I expect him to be the clear frontrunner for the starting SF job very soon.

Bust a Bucket

2006-07-18T14:57:00.000-07:00

If that doesn't work, go here.

Trade Factory - POR/MIN/NOOK trade

2006-07-02T12:06:00.000-07:00

How are we going to get rid of Miles. I was very disappointed to hear the NY Knicks recently saying they would probably not trade their expiring contracts, which in my mind takes away one of the most likely targets for a Miles trade. If Isaiah doesn't want him, who would?

The most likely targets would seem to be teams that are a little desperate for talent and willing to take a chance, who need a starting small forward, and who are expected to be a little over the cap for the next few years (so they don't lose cap space by taking on Miles salary).

With these criteria, Minnesota is the only team that comes to mind. Would Kevin McHale want to take a chance on Darius? I don't know, but if so, it might look something like this.

New Orleans sends out Desmond Mason, JR Smith and Arvydas Macijauskas
New Orleans receives Ricky Davis, Juan Dixon, Dan Dickau and a 2007 2nd round pick (Portland's).
Minnesota sends out Ricky Davis and Eddie Griffin, Bracey Wright.
Minnesota receives Darius Miles, JR Smith, Arvydas Macijauskas, Travis Outlaw.
Portland sends out Darius Miles, Juan Dixon, Travis Outlaw, Dan Dickau, 2007 2nd round pick.
Portland recieves Desmond Mason, Eddie Griffin, Bracey Wright.

Why New Orleans does it: This trade allows them to get rid of all their unhappiest players. For whatever reason, some guys aren't fitting in with the Oklahoma City/Byron Scott era, and those guys are Smith, Mason and Macijauskas. However, if the Hornets are going to trade those guys, they will need more guards to replace them. Ricky Davis would start for them at SG, between Chris Paul and Peja Stojakovic. Dan Dickau had a great year in New Orleans as the starter during the 2004-2005 season, and if healthy (let's hope), he would be the 2nd or 3rd point guard for the Hornets (depending on if Speedy Claxton is still around next season). Juan Dixon just gives them a capable veteran to backup the SG spot, who can also play PG in a pinch. The 2007 pick is just a sweetener (although it probably will be a decent pick between #31 and #40), to help the skinflint Hornets keep their roster full next year.

Why Minnesota does it: Basically, they are desperate. In exchange for the stat stuffing but somewhat inefficient offense of Ricky Davis, and the versatile but now embarassing Eddie Griffin, the T-Wolves get some real talent. Darius Miles is capable of contributing just as much as Davis (19-5-3 type numbers), and a change of scene might be able to bring that out of him. JR Smith is a promising young SG, and with the recent announcement that Rashad McCants will require microfracture surgery, the T-Wolves could use him. Arvydas Macijauskas is also a talented combo guard who could benefit from a change in scene, and backup the PG position in an emergency. Travis Outlaw is a physical freak who hasn't learned to play aggressively and who seemed to regress under coach Nate McMillan in Portland, and he is another guy who could blossom with a team change. Either way he provides needed depth at SF for the Wolves.

Why Portland does it: The Blazers really want to dump Darius Miles. He has been a discontented locker room poison for over a season now, and he has to be moved. He is supremely talented, but seems to have a fragile ego and has burned his bridges with the Blazers. Juan Dixon is also rumored to be unhappy in Portland, with all the losing and McMillan's harsh coaching style. Contrast that with Desmond Mason, who spies tell us actually wants to play in Portland. He has a house in West Linn and a history with Coach Nate. Eddie Griffin possibly could contribute on the court in Portland, but due to the lingering "jailblazer" image problems that the team has, he would have to be waived or bought out immediately, and the team would eat the remaining $5.6 mil on his contract. Bracey Wright is a throw in.

Why New Orleans doesn't do it: It's tough to know how each coach and GM guages the value of each individual player. The three D's they are getting (Davis, Dixon, and Dickau), all have only 1 year remaining on their reasonably sized contracts, but if the Hornets really don't like those guys, they won't want to give up Desmond Mason's expiring contract for them. However, I think the Hornets should like this deal.

Why Minnesota doesn't do it: This is the weakest link. Ricky Davis and Eddie Griffin are real contributors for the Wolves. Although the team is bad and could use a good shakeup, this trade doesn't provide them with any sure-fire assets. With guys like Darius, Smith, Outlaw and Macijauskas, it only gives them a moderate increase in talent that may or may not even be realized. It gives them more depth at the wing positions, but it is not the kind of trade that will make Timberwolves fans get excited.

Why Portland doesn't do it: Perhaps, someone within the Blazers organization thinks they can get more for Miles? I can't think of any other reason Portland would not do this trade. They exchange their biggest headache (Miles), who for all his talent isn't even contributing much on the court anyways, for a great character guy and veteran who actually wants to be here. They lose disgruntled Dixon and underachieving Outlaw, but Coach Nate probably wouldn't miss them. The 2007 pick will be a decent one, but with a nearly full roster next year anyways, the Blazers probably don't need it. Owner Paul Allen is probably a little reluctant to just eat a $5 mil + contract like Griffin's, but that amount is much less than the long term money the team is scheduled to waste on Miles now, so it's a net financial gain in the long run.

If you can think of any way to make the offer more attractive for Minnesota, don't be afriad to leave a comment. I thought about giving them Blake, but I think that we need him as our backup (or even starting) PG right now.

Pick #31 - Mike Gansey

2006-06-27T18:27:00.000-07:00

This isn't a prediction, since the Trailblazers didn't even bring Gansey in for a workout, but rather a recommendation. Gansey is a high b-ball IQ type player, a hard worker, a good rebounder and a very good shooter. The knocks on him are his height (6-4, small for an NBA SG) and his severe lack of athletecism. The way I see it though, he would replace what Voshon Lenard brought to the team last year. Many people didn't notice, since Lenard came in at the forefront of a horrendous finish to the season, but his veteran presence, smart play and outside shooting really helped the offense run. With Lenard leaving for free agency, I see Gansey being able to substantially replicate those contributions.

Final Draft Mock

2006-06-27T14:38:00.000-07:00

Here it is, the last mock draft before the actual draft. As has everyone else's, my mocks have been all over the place as the workouts progress and the rumors fly.

Of course, between now and the time the draftees actually play for their teams, trades could take place to completely alter the draft landscape. One particularly jarring possibility would have Toronto sending their pick + Charlie Villanueva + Morris Peterson to Seattle for Ray Allen and another asset(s) (possibly a big man, Luke Ridnour and/or the #10 pick). Changing the top of the draft would really muss up everyone else's expectations.

Another rumor that seemed to have legs had Houston and Atlanta swapping picks, with Houston giving up Luther Head in the process, if Brandon Roy is still available when Atlanta picks 5th. Houston would then take Shelden Williams for Atlanta.

However, right now it appears that no trades will take place, and with that assumption, here's how it might play out.

Toronto Raptors - Andrea Bargnani: For a while, I figured they would take LaMarcus Aldridge with their pick, since he appears to be Chris Bosh's favorite, but the Rasho Nesterovic trade seemed to mediate their need for another center. So we go back to the long-time conventional wisdom that says they take Bargnani, play him at SF, and look to trade Charlie V when a good offer arises. Bargnani is the kind of flexible position 3pt shooting big man that just screams out "Phoenix-style", which is what they are trying to build now in Toronto. The most likely alternate pick for the Raptors would be Adam Morrison

Chicago Bulls - Tyrus Thomas: Chicago's biggest needs are at SG and PF, but I think they will go for possibly the best (future) player available and take Thomas. He's a hard working and intense player, just like Bulls coach Scott Skiles, and can contribute at PF. While his offense develops, his defense will keep him on the floor. Alridge or Roy would be better fits for the Bulls, but Paxson knows that patience is a virtue when it comes to draft picks.

Charlotte Bobcats - Brandon Roy: What Bernie Bickerstaff has done in previous drafts is prove that he prefers proven college players, and Brandon Roy is exactly that. He can shoot, score, drive, dish and defend, and will contribute immediately for the 'Cats at SG. Alternate possibilities include Morrison and Rudy Gay, but Roy provides Charlotte with a nice blend of proven talent, remaining upside, various skills and fulfilling a team need.

Portland Trailblazers - LaMarcus Aldridge: The Blazers will be ecstatic if the best big man in the draft falls to them. Aldridge has a nice balance of skills, and a great attitude to match. In a recent interview he remarked about how he didn't like to go to clubs or go out drinking, that he'd rather be in the gym, and for a team and town struggling with a lingering "Jailblazer" image, that kind of guy will do a lot to remove the stain. With center Joel Przybilla likely leaving for free agency, Aldridge also fulfills a major team need. Other players considered by the Blazers are Rudy Gay and Adam Morrison.

Atlanta Hawks - Shelden Williams: Nobody ever accused the Hawks of making great draft picks, and this pick will raise eyebrows, even though it is widely expected. The Hawks need an inside presence at PF, and Williams fills it nicely. He doesn't have nearly the upside of other players in this region of the draft, but look for Atlanta GM Billy Knight to wear a smug smile later in the season when Williams is a legitimate Rookie of the Year contender. Others considered for this pick possibly include Marcus Williams and Randy Foye.

Minnesota Timberwolves - Adam Morrison: The T-wolves are in a woeful situation, with sad superstar Kevin Garnett surrounded by a group of mostly overpaid and flawed players, with the team having no caproom to make improvements where needed (which is every position except PF). They want help now, and with Garnett the type of star who loves to pass, they'll look for someone in the draft who is NBA ready now and who loves to shoot. That's Adam Morrison. Others considered here include Marcus Williams and Rudy Gay.

Boston Celtics - Randy Foye: After Dwayne Wade's dramatic MVP performance in the recent NBA finals, everyone is asking, who is the next Wade? If there is one in this draft, it's Foye. The knock on him is that he isn't a true point, but at Villanova, he wasn't asked to be. His moderate point guard skills combined with his exceptional scoring skills and good defense will keep him on the floor at one of the guard positions. He isn't the best fit in Boston, but he will be a great player.

Houston Rockets - Rudy Gay: The best fit for the Rockets probably would be a guard, Williams, Roy or Foye, but if Rudy Gay falls this far, they will pick him up, despite the fact that he plays the same position as Tracy McGrady. Somehow they will fit it together (easily in fact if McGrady spends another half season injured), and getting a potential superstar this late in the draft will be seen as a blessing in future years.

Next likely to be picked, in no particular order: Marcus Williams, Rodney Carney and Patrick O'Bryant (who will be considered a huge bust for the first few years).

Bonus: Blazers late picks predictions!

Assuming they don't trade the picks, the Blazers have the #30 and #31 selection in the draft. Due to roster constraints, one of them will be a foreigner. The other one will be someone who fills a need. With that in mind, and after working out half of all the prospects in the draft,

With the 30th pick in the draft, the Portland Trailblazers select,

Joel Freeland, PF from England: Freeland is a 19 year old raw and athletic big man who has only been playing basketball for 3 years. Nevertheless, he impressed scouts at the European pre-draft combine with a good attitude and an array of offensive skills, including a jumper out to the Euro 3pt line. Look for the Blazers to take Freeland and leave him overseas for a couple years.

With the 31st pick in the draft, the Portland Trailblazers select,

Leon Powe, PF from the University of California: For an NBA PF, Powe is a little short, but he is large and very strong, and is a proven post player at the college level. The main thing keeping him from being a higher pick is that he has undergone two major knee surgeries. However, with the nonguaranteed contract that comes from picking in the second round, the Blazers will make a smart gamble that Powe will be able to step up as the 2nd or 3rd string backup to Zach Randolph at power forward and contribute, and perhaps be more down the road.

The 31st pick is the toughest to predict, since there is no certainty regarding who will be available or what the team's actual needs will be after the 1st round picks are made. Look for PJ Tucker, Bobby Brown, Marcus Vinicius, James Augustine or Paul Davis all to potentially be the one selected with the Blazers last pick.

What good are late picks?

2006-06-27T11:57:00.000-07:00

With the Blazers presently still in possession of the #30 and #31 picks, the last of the 1st round and the 1st pick of the 2nd round, a major question for pinwheel fans is; what can we expect to get for these picks?

There are a few rumors floating around. One has us trading up both of the picks for the #23 from NJ, which would be pretty good. Another has us combining Miles and one or both picks to get an expiring contract and a mid-1st round pick, potentially from a team like the Hornets (#15) or the Knicks (#20).

Assuming we use the picks, can we expect to get a good player? Just for fun I looked back on the last few draft years to see how those picks bracketing the 1st round-2nd round border have panned out recently. I was a little surprised.

2005: David Lee and Salim Stoudamire
2004: David Harrison and Anderson Varejao
2003: Josh Howard and Maciej Lampe
2002: Dan Dickau and Steve Logan
2001: Tony Parker and Trenton Hassell
2000: Mark Madsen and Marko Jaric
1999: Leon Smith and John Celestand
1998: Nazr Mohammed and Ansu Sesay

More than half of those guys went on to be real contributors to NBA teams, especially the more recent ones. Tony Parker and Josh Howard turned out to be pretty good players and important cogs on deep playoff teams. While it's probably not realistic to expect to get a great or even a good player with those late picks, history shows that it's clearly not impossible either.

Now the Blazers have an issue regarding these picks. With 12 players under contract next seasons, not counting free agents Voshon Lenard and Joel Przybilla, using all three draft picks would put the team right at the 15 man roster limit. That would leave them no space to sign Joel, or another free agent center, or the veteran guard that Coach McMillan has specifically requested.

What's likely to happen, if we don't trade the picks, is the Blazers will draft at least one foreign player who is under contract overseas, and leave him there to develop for a season or more. That allows us to use the draft pick to still get some potential for the future, but not use up the roster space or the money waiting for the guy to develop.

With that in mind, the only likely candidates for our foreign play are:

PF Oleksiy Pecherov - A raw and athletic Ukrainian, playing in France. He's big and tall but he plays a face-up game.
PF Joel Freeland - A en even more raw athletic big man from England. He impressed many at the European pre-draft combine enough to shoot up the draft chart from obscurity to projected early 2nd round pick. Has only been playing basketball 3 years, but reportedly has both shooting range out to the international 3 line and a nascent post up game.

I guess that's it. I would have included SF Marcus Vinicius from Brazil on this list, and with a developed offensive game he could be an asset to the Blazers, but reportedly his Euroleague contract has expired, so whoever drafts him would have to take him. Other foreign possibilities include C Saer Sene, SG Thabo Sefolosha and PG Sergio Rodriguez, but it's likely all of them will be gone in the first 29 picks. However, if any of those three drops, look for the Blazers to eagerly snatch him up with #30/#31.

As for domestic prospects, the Blazers will probably look to fill a need based on who is drafted earlier. My favorites include:

PF Leon Powe, Cal - An undersized but very productive PF from the PAC-10 conference. The major reason he would even be available late is because he has already had two major knee surgeries. However, with second round picks having non-guaranteed contracts, it would be a great gamble for the Blazers to pick him up with the #31 pick, to be slotted in at the backup PF position immediately.
SF PJ Tucker, Texas - Another undersized player. At 6'5", he played PF in college, but would probably move to the SF position in the pros. He is a tough, a balls-out player who is a tremendous rebounder. Last year at Texas he was the team's leading rebounder in fact (9.5/game), ahead of big man LaMarcus Aldridge. Projects to be a poor man's Bonzi Wells.

Wade and Roy's college stats

2006-06-20T21:24:00.000-07:00

here is a comparison of their respective stats from their last year in college (some numbers rounded):

Wade: 21.5 ppg, 50% FG, 31% 3PT, 6.3 RPG, 4.4 APG, 1.3 BPG, 2.2 SPG

Roy: 20.2 PPG, 51% FG, 40% 3PT, 5.6 RPG, 4.1 APG, 0.8 BPG, 1.4 SPG

Wade is definitely more athletic, but Roy put up almost the same numbers in college, although those are Roy's senior numbers compared to Wade as a soph.

I just thought it is interesting to note. Someone in the O-live forum asked, after watching Wade in the clinching game 6 of this year's finals, "who is the Wade in this draft" (or something to that effect). Which college player has the best chance to jump out and dominate the league? I still think that Gay has the most superstar potential, and Aldridge is my second choice for Portland's #4 pick (even if he won't ever be a superstar), but there is definitely some similarity between Wade's numbers and Roy's. That's all.

June Fresh Mock Draft

2006-06-03T12:22:00.000-07:00

Since the draft lottery, there has already been moving and shaking of expectations about the draft picks. Some teams have revealed bits about their intentions, and some players' workouts have forced them to be recognized. Many draft boards were written right when the ping pong balls settled, but at this time most of them are looking stale and lethargic. So for this mock, I tried to ignore the mock-draft inertia and make freshly thought out picks, with some surprising results. Here is an updated prediction for how the top of the draft may unfold:

1. Toronto Raptors - Andrea Bargnani: This is no surprise to draft watchers. Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo was brought to Toronto after a successful stint building the Phoenix Suns into the most fun team in the league, utilizing a European-style system with a veteran Euroleague coach. Presumably, he will be installing a similar system in Toronto, and has already begun by hiring Maurizio Gherardini from Benetton Treviso. While that happens to be Bargnani's euroleague team, I don't think the hiring is linked to the draft pick, other than that a sweet shooting and mobile 7' Italian would create the kind of matchup problems for defenses that the Phoenix Suns have been enjoying all year.

2. Chicago Bulls - Tyrus Thomas: This guy came out of nowhere, had a great end of the season and tourney to rocket up to #1 on most boards, and then fell out of favor again. Many people see how raw his offense is, and how undersized he appears for the PF position in the NBA, and let doubts set in. Those things are real concerns, but I imagine Thomas becoming something of an Andre Kirilenko type player - a guy who is capable on offense, but who is really defined by his omnipresent spider-monster defense. Thomas's reportedly hard working nature should also fit in well with Bulls coach Scott Skiles.

3. Charlotte Bobcats - Rudy Gay: Charlotte is the big mystery team. What do they need and what do they want? Bernie Bickerstaff, both the general manager and the coach of the 'Cats, certainly is a major fan of hard work, as evidenced by his ejection of Kareem Rush from the team at the end of last season. The move didn't save them any money or affect the rest of the roster, since Rush's contract was set to expire, he just did it to set an example. Bickerstaff's team has PG Raymond Felton, swingman Gerald Wallace, and big man Emeka Okafor as the primary core. What that core seems to lack is great outside shooting and a post player.

Adam Morrison is a tempting pick (and is at #3 on most boards at the moment), because he can hit the long ball and fits in with Bickerstaff's previous draft proclivities towards hard-working players with college experience. LaMarcus Aldridge is also a tempting pick here, since his post game would add a neeeded dimension to the Bobcats offense, and since big men don't grow on trees.

However, I've slotted Gay into this position because he is perhaps the best all-around talent in the draft. While not a sharpshooter, he is a true wing player, so should fit in fine in Charlotte, with Gerald Wallace moving to the 2 slot. Bickerstaff is reportedly buddies with UConn coach Jim Calhoun, and assuming that Calhoun gives Gay the endorsement, the young forward could follow Okafor to Charlotte.

4. Portland Trailblazers - LaMarcus Aldridge: This is the guy Portland probably would have taken #1 if they had lucked out in the lottery, so if the big man falls that far, the Blazers will snatch him right up. Questions abound about Aldridge's toughness and motivation, but with C Joel Przybilla probably leaving, C Theo Ratliff potentially being traded for financial reasons, and PF Zach Randolph playing on a repaired knee and having attitude problems, the Blazers are desperate for help, talent and potential at the big man positions.

5. Atlanta Hawks - Marcus Williams: I was very early at tabbing Williams as the #5 pick (in the mock draft before last), and I'm coming back to it now. They desperately need a true PG in ATL, and Williams is burning up the workout scene. They also do not need a SF under any circumstances. Randy Foye is a tempting option for them, and while he is very good, he is not a true point guard.

6. Minnesota Timberwolves - Adam Morrison: Rabid Morrison fans are probably burning up just reading this, seeing that I have him falling to 6th. Minnesota like Charlotte is a team with many needs. The PF position is locked up, and everything else could be upgraded. They need a real C badly, but few are available in this draft, and they won't reach for O'Bryant with the #6 pick. Marcus Banks is promising at point, and Ricky Davis is the incumbent at one of the swing positions. They will take Morrison because he is a proven college scorer and should complement the ball-sharing offensive style of Kevin Garnett very well. Will this give fans in Minnesota Wally Szczerbiak flashbacks? Maybe a little.

7. Boston Celtics - Patrick O'bryant: It is tempting to just say that Boston will draft O'Bryant for his Irish sounding name, but there is actual reasoning behind it. The C's are pretty much set at the GF positions, with Paul Pierce, Wally Szczerbiak, Ryan Gomes and Gerald Green. Delonte West is a capable young point man, but while Boston would sure be willing to upgrade the PG position, Foye would not be a good fit and no other great PGs remain. O'Bryant is very talented but very raw, and Danny Ainge has been patiently building a young team for the future. Kedrick Perkins, Al Jefferson and Raef LaFrentz are the present big men in Boston, but all of them are really PFs playing out of position at the 5, so O'Bryant can be brought in as the future at center for the celtics.

8. Houston Rockets - Brandon Roy: The second major unexpected fall (after Morrison), Brandon Roy finally lands with the Rockets at #8. The Rockets are yet another team with needs at multiple positions. Besides Yao at center, they need help everywhere else. They are tempted to take Rodney Carney, who is reportedly working out with Tracy McGrady, and Shelden Williams, to replace the aging Juwon Howard and the disappointing Stro Swift at PF and backup C. They are even more tempted to take Randy Foye, since the Rockets could use a good point guard. But again, Foye is no true PG, and if they are going to take a swingman and if Roy actually falls this far, they would go with Roy. He is big enough to be a true shooting guard, which in my opinion is their weakest position, and his all around play would be of great help to the woeful Rockets. They need better offense, better defense, better shooting and smarter overall play, and Roy gives them something in each category.

Likely next picks, in no particular order: Randy Foye, Sergio Rodriguez, Shelden Williams, Cedric Simmons.

New NBA draft mock - top 8

2006-05-23T17:00:00.000-07:00

With the recent results of the NBA draft lotto having just been announced, and after my Portland Trailblazers got jobbed down to the #4 pick, it's time to reconfigure the mock draft to present realities. So here is the new board:

#1 Toronto Raptors - Andrea Bargnani: Many people might not believe it at first glance, but Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo has a nice job. He has a team that has lost a lot of games in the past, but he has the opportunity to build it anew as he wants, starting with some great young pieces, and now the top pick of the 2006 draft. It is tempting to surmise that he wants to remake the Raptors in the image of the Phoenix Suns, with athletic players at every position and multiple 3 pt-shooters on the floor at all times. Toronto already runs at a very fast pace, so isn't that far away. With Jose Manuel Calderon, Charlie Villanueva, Chris Bosh forming a young core and veterans Mo Pete and Mike James possibly but not certainly staying, the Raptors can burn up the floorboards.

The rumor is that to those pieces Toronto wants to add Andrea Bargnani. This 7-footer has great mobility and is a real 3 pt threat, and a matchup nightmare. This still leaves Toronto with a bunch of quick guards and forwards who are tough to matchup with, but no real center, which is exactly how the Phoenix Suns were built.

#2 Chicago Bulls - LaMarcus Aldridge: The Bulls need a shooting guard and a power forward or center. There is some talk that gritty coach Scott Skiles would like the hard-working, intense and defensively capable Tyrus Thomas, but the Bulls also are in dire need of a post presence to balance out their offense. LaMarcus Aldridge could step into the frontline with offensively challenged FC Tyson Chandler and provide that for them. After they make this draft pick (or even before), the Bulls will be very active in the trade market, so nothing it predictable for them this offseason, but Aldridge makes sense for them right now.

#3 Charlotte Bobcats - Brandon Roy: In the first major surprise of the draft, the Bobcats pick the guard from Washington. 'Cats GM Bernie Bickerstaff will favor experienced college talent and fulfilling a need over the questionable potential of the remaining candidates in the draft. Many expect Morrison to be the pick here, and while that is still possible, Roy is the more well-rounded player by far. Roy is going to look great in the workouts preceding the draft, so won't seem like nearly so much of a reach at #3 as he may appear now.

#4 Portland Trailblazers - Rudy Gay: The Blazers would have loved to draft Aldridge with their pick to shore up their thin (and getting thinner if Joel Przybilla leaves) frontcourt, and give them a Bosh-like cornerstone for the future, but according to the ping-pong balls that isn't to be. Of the players remaining, and actually of all the players in the draft, Rudy Gay has easily the most superstar potential.

Blazers management is known to favor players willing to workout against other players in the pre-draft period (which is why they eschewed more highly rated guys like Chris Paul and Gerald Green in favor of Martell Webster last year), and Rudy Gay has already shown that he is fearless in that regard. He has already targetted Tyrus Thomas, Adam Morrison and Brandon Roy as workout partners ... that is if they are willing to accept the challenge. Also, the Blazers will actively be seeking to trade SF Darius Miles this offseason and beyond, leaving the starting job at the 3 position open.

#5 Atlanta Hawks - Tyrus Thomas: Atlanta needs a true point guard, and they will seriously consider being the second major surprise of the draft and taking Marcus Williams. In the end, however, they will fill their 2nd neediest position by drafting the freshman PF from LSU. His upside is huge, and his energy is great, both of which are important for a rebuilding club. Marvin Williams is a SF, and the Hawks will look to sign and trade Al Harrington, leaving Thomas as the guy at the 4 spot in the ATL.

#6 Minnesota Timberwolves - Adam Morrison: The T-Wolves have Kevin Garnett at PF, and need to upgrade at every other position. With Kevin Garnett being unselfish to a fault sometimes on offense, a true scorer like Morrison could really help spring their offense to life. Many will be surprised that the early favorite for the #1 pick and the college player of the year selection falls this low, but Kevin McHale won't let him fall any farther.

#7 Boston Celtics - Marcus Williams: Celtics GM Danny Ainge is faced with some tough decisions. Barring a trade of swingmen Paul Pierce, Wally Szczerbiak, or Ryan Gomes, the 2 and 3 positions seem locked up long-term in Boston. With Al Jefferson, Kedrick Perkins and Delonte West as the frontrunners for the other three positions, the C's have a lot of middling talent but no clear point of greatest anticipated need. Marcus Williams is going to have great workouts, and is a real pass-first true PG from nearby UConn, so I'm putting him down as the Celtics pick. Also look for the possibility of Danny Ainge taking Brazilian big man Tiago Splitter with this pick, depending on what kind of buyout Splitter's agent appears to have negotiated with his Euroleague team, Tau Vitoria.

#8 Houston Rockets - Mardy Collins: Another team near the top of the draft with many needs and no clear answers. The Rockets have Yao at C, and that is the only position they are happy with. SF Tracy McGrady is great for them, when he plays, but his back problems seem to be sticking around and refusing to leave him alone. Young guards Rafer Alston and Luther Head are talented, but just don't seem to be the answers there. David Wesley and Juwon Howard had nice careers, but they are winding down. Stromile Swift has been a disappointment.

With these needs in mind, I look to the Rockets to draft the big senior guard from Temple. The Rockets will certainly consider Randy Foye with this pick, but even though he is listed at PG, he is more of a small SG, a la Ben Gordon. Collins is a true PG and a mature player, and he lets Head switch to his more natural SG role on offense, while still providing a big body to guard taller 2's on the defensive end. Houston probably would have liked Brandon Roy or Marcus Williams to fall to them here, and will also likely take long looks at Foye, Ronnie Brewer and Rodney Carney, but right now I have them down for Collins.

Rumor Mill - Trade Miles for Fisher and Biedrins?

2006-05-18T15:23:00.000-07:00

A poster in the chat room with anonymous sourcing posted this trade today, rumored to be in talks right now, that would send Darius Miles, one of Portland's late draft picks this year (#30 or #31) and a future pick to Golden State for Derek Fisher and Andres Biedrins. It sounds plausible, because there are aspects to like and dislike for both teams.

Why Golden State makes this trade:

When GM Chris Mullin built this Golden State team, he must have envisioned it looking better at the end. With players like Derek Fisher, Baron Davis, Jason Richardsen, Mike Dunleavy, Troy Murphy and Adonal Foyle locked up long term with large contracts, there is little salary space for Mullin to work with. Looking at that list, there is a lot of mediocrity there. The team as it is presently constructed seems destined to be perpetually on the playoff bubble, unless changes are made.

This trade allows Mullin to dump one of those overpriced contracts (Fisher) and an extemporaneous big man in exchange for two picks and one of the most gifted players in the league. If Darius Miles could play up to his full potential in Golden State, he could really help take them to the next level.

Why Golden State doesn't make this trade:

Problems abound here. Firstly, with Baron Davis usually either playing through injuries, or just sitting out with injuries, Derek Fisher was the starting point guard for the Warriors more often than not in the last two years. Unless Mullin thinks that Davis is going to be more healthy in the future, or that young prospect Monta Ellis will be ready soon to play real minutes at the point, the Warriors can't afford to give up Fisher without getting another starting quality PG.

Secondly, while the Warriors have depth at the big man positions (Foyle, Murphy, Ike Diogu and Zabarkaba if his heart troubles stay settled), none of that is overwhelmingly good, and they aren't so deep that they couldn't find 12-14 minutes/game for Biedrins. The young Latvian in that time last season put up per 40 minute averages of 10.2 points, 11.4 boards and almost 2.0 blocks. His FT shooting is atrocious (about 30% last year!), but the kid plays tough under the basket and contests shots, and is still very young. He is no throw in caliber asset.

Last but not least, in return for those players that GS does use, they get Darius Miles. Miles plays the same position as Mike Dunleavy, who is locked up long term, with hot prospect Mickael Pietrus also getting some minutes at the 3 spot. Miles is a greater talent than them, but as the Clippers, the Cavaliers and the Trailblazers all discovered, there is something not quite right about the kid. Especially in Portland, he has shown inconsistent flashes of his great potential surrounded by glaring examples of chemistry-killing bad attitude. Sometimes a change of scene helps players like that, and other times it just placates them for a short while, and ends up blowing up in the new team's face. Certainly Chris Mullin would be aware and afraid of this possibility.

Why Portland makes this trade:

The Blazers would love to get rid of Miles and actually get something in return. The bad relations between the coach, the player, the media and the fans (take your pick who you want to blame), have poisoned the well so thoroughly that Miles cannot stay in Portland. After playing very well at the start of the 2005-2006 season, Miles went out with a knee injury, and came back as a shell of his former self. A late season tirade to the local newspaper, where Miles blamed everyone but himself for his poor effort and all other problems, really underscored the need for Miles and the Blazers to part ways.

At the end of the tough previous season in Portland, Coach Nate McMillan publicly asked management to get him some help, in the form of a veteran guard. This statement was echoed by PF Zach Randolph and C Theo Ratliff as well. While a real all-star is probably out of reach for the assets Portland has, a just having a capable veteran like Fisher could go a long ways towards getting the team playing "the right way" (one of Coach Nate's favorite expressions).

With free agent C Joel Przybilla possibly leaving at the end of the season, the depth in the frontcourt is pretty thin. Zach Randolph and Theo Ratliff would be the often injured starting line, with Brian Skinner and young raw prospect Ha Seung-Jin as the only backups so far. A young big man like Biedrins would be able not only to find minutes in Portland, but make a contribution.

Also, with the team already as young as it is, they are less reluctant to give up some draft picks. As the roster stands now, they might not have the roster spots to retain all three picks they hold in this years drafts anyhow.

Why Portland doesn't make this trade:

There are only two major hangups in this trade for Portland. The first is that Derek Fisher is a point guard, and that is the one position on the roster where Portland actually has good depth, with three capable young players in Sebastien Telfair, Steve Blake and Jarrett Jack. Already there is grumbling about playing time, and adding Derek Fisher would help the team next year, but lead to more conflict and perhaps stunted development of the younger guards.

The other issue is that it is very unwise for a bad team to not get a lot in return for its draft picks. The #30 and #31 picks in this year's draft are not tremendously valuable, but Portland doesn't expect to suddenly become good next year, even with this trade, so an unprotected future first rounder should be out of the question. What pick and conditions would Portland GM John Nash be willing to give to make this deal happen, and what would Chris Mullin accept? There may not be room for agreement there.

The Verdict:

This trade won't happen as is. The problems for both teams are too substantial. However, some modifications could serve to make something happen. The main thing Portland wants is Biedrins, and GS wants to send out a long-term contract attached to a middling player. Fisher is valuable to them, and could be valuable to any number of bad teams that need a starting PG (Atlanta, Houston, etc.), or perhaps to a playoff team that wants a battle-tested veteran backup (the Lakers would love to have him back). Getting a third team involved opens up nearly limitless possibilities. Portland might also be able to replace Fisher for GS by sending one of their young PGs to Oakland. Or perhaps, they could take Mike Dunleavy's bloated contract in exchange for Miles, essentially trading starting SFs and other considerations. But in any case, the trade as it stands doesn't work well for either team, and requires substantial revision.

ESPN.com sucks! Get a new stylesheet!

2006-05-15T16:57:00.000-07:00

Does anyone else find it irritating that ESPN pages take so long to load? They put all this crap on the page that takes a few seconds to render on my computer.

Here is an example, the Shawn Marion player page on ESPN.com

Compare that to the same page on Yahoo Sports:

I think we should boycott ESPN.com until they get a real programmer (as opposed to a marketing guy) to design their style sheets. I am happy however that ESPN seems to have set the embedded video on their main page to default to "off". I really disliked opening the page and being assaulted by the broken noise of whatever was playing in the tiny box.

Draft Prediction - Top 8

2006-05-15T16:18:00.000-07:00

As of today, this is how I see the draft unfolding, assuming the team's picked in the most probable order and nobody makes any trades:

1. Portland - LaMarcus Aldridge: a combo big man and by some estimates the safest pick in the draft. With Joel Przybilla likely leaving, young LaMarcus may be forced into immediate duty at the C and backup PF positions. He will have a tough first year in Nate's demanding offensive system, but if he survives it mentally intact, he will be stronger for it going forward.

2. Chicago - Andrea Bargnani: They would have loved to get Aldridge or to trade their pick, but in this position they would likely pick Bargnani. They need a post up scoring PF, so they will have to try to teach AB to be that.

3. Charlotte - Tyrus Thomas: In some recent drafts they have appeared to favor proven college players, which is why many boards have them picking Morrison, but by draft time everyone will have soured on Morrison. Charlotte the expansion franchise will remain patient and take the hard working and promising freshman from LSU.

4. Atlanta - Marcus Williams: They are reaching here, but they do not need another SF (Gay or Morrison) and are desperate for a true PG. With all the pre-draft workout buzz surrounding Marcus Williams they will surprise many with this pick, but should be happy with it as the years go on. The question is what will they write on the back of their uniforms to differentiate Marcus Williams from Marvin Williams?

5. Toronto - Brandon Roy: Like the other teams in the top 5, TOR would love to get a veteran in trade for their pick, or be able to draft a big man, but as this board falls out, they would take Brandon Roy. They are rumored to be shopping Mo Pete and his defensive deficiencies, and Roy could effectively step into the SG spot and be a nice piece to the core of James/Calderon/Bell at PG and Villanueva and Bosh at forward.

6. Minnesota - Rudy Gay: The T-Wolves could use players at nearly any position, so they will take a chance on the guy with the most potential in the whole draft, who falls to them at #6. With KG growing more unhappy each passing year, Minny hopes this pick is a home run.

7. Boston Celtics - Adam Morrison: Yet another team that could use a veteran in trade or a solid big man who has to compromise. Predicted to go much higher, Danny Ainge is still happy to have Adam Morrison fall to him.

8. Houston Rockets - Rodney Carney: The Rockets would have loved to had Marcus Williams fall to them, but given what is available, they take Rodney Carney. His upside is good, and he should be able to step on the court and contribute right away in Houston, either playing minutes at SG or backing up T-Mac at SF if and when his back goes out again.

Thoughts?

Trade Factory - Ratliff and Blake for Eddie Jones

2006-05-15T14:25:00.000-07:00

In the O-live blazer blog, there was recently a link to an ESPN chat with Chris Sheridan that suggested the possibility of trading Zach Randolph to Memphis for Eddie Jones (look just a little down from the top, May 12th). While that trade specifically makes no sense at all for the Blazers or the Grizz, it got me thinking about Eddie Jones.

Coach Nate specifically requested some veteran help at guard. Jones is such a guard, who plays smart, plays decent defense and can hit an open three. He is probably about the best player we could realistically get without giving up our top pick.

With Mike Miller and Shane Battier potentially holding down the 2 and 3 positions, and with Bobby Jackson, Chucky Atkins and Lorenzen Wright potentially leaving and Damon Stoudemire coming off injury, the Grizz might look to move Jones and his big expiring salary for immediate help at the 1 and 5 positions.

So it seems to me a trade of Steve Blake and Theo Ratliff for Eddie Jones makes sense for both teams. To get their veteran guard and a chance at cap space when Jones's contract expires at the end of the year, the Blazers give up a smart and effective but extemporaneous young PG and an aging and overpaid and often injured center.

The downside for Memphis, besides giving up a good player, is that they take on more salary obligations for the 2007-2008 season, and they risk having Theo injured and unable to contribute during the next two years. On the salary front, they probably won't be able to get under the cap until at least 2010 without some major cap clearing moves, so it's a matter of whether their ownership is willing to tolerate that level of payroll. Also, they would still have to look for another passable center to account for the possibility of injury to Ratliff.

However, in my opinion, Theo along with Blake could be two very great backups for them, and this trade makes sense for both teams.

Blazers lineup:

PG: Telfair, Jack
SG: Jones, Dixon
SF: Webster, Khryapa, Outlaw
PF: Zach, Aldridge/Bargnani/Thomas
C: Skinner, Ha, ?

Miles to the Hornets?

2006-05-13T17:42:00.000-07:00

A hoopsworld writer, who seems to imply that he is a Hornets fan, suggests that NOOKie should offer Portland Desmond Mason, Arvydas Macijauskas, and an unspecified first round pick for Darius Miles. Where do we sign up?

Darius is obviously talented, but would NOOK really want his contract and his attitude with that talent? They actually wouldn't be giving up much. Mason is talented but not that great, and his contract is expiring (the best part for Portland). Arvydas Macije-chacha is some undrafted scrub who inexplicably has a $2.5mil/yr contract with two more years on it. The pick would probably be too much to ask for, but even without we would be trading our disgruntled and overpaid SF for another SF who is nearly guaranteed to play hard, since he is playing for his next contract.

I don't think it's realistic, but it's nice to know at least someone in the world thinks Miles actually has value.

Past Blazers in the Playoffs - a quickie analysis

2006-05-13T10:51:00.000-07:00

Astute observers of the NBA playoffs may have noticed that there seem to be a lot of former Trailblazers in them. Did every active former Blazer make it to the second season? No, but it's close. Pinwheel has manually compiled a list of active former Trailblazers and noted which made and did not make the playoffs. As this was done manually, there may be one or two missing, so leave a comment if you think of one.

Didn't make the playoffs:

(7 players) Alvin Williams, Rick Brunson, Dan Dickau, Matt Carroll, Richie Frahm, Stacey Augmon, Qyntel Woods

Made the playoffs:

(19 players) Damon Stoudamire, Nick Van Excel, Eddie Gill, Jeff McInnis, Antonio Daniels, Bonzi Wells, Jim Jackson, Derek Anderson, Aaron McKie, Ruben Patterson, Sergei Monia, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Rasheed Wallace, Jermaine O'Neal, Scott Padgett, Cliff Robinson, Kelvin Cato, Dale Davis, Brian Grant

There are 16 teams in the playoffs, out of 29 non-Blazer teams. From that proportion alone (16/29ths), if there was a random distribution we would expect to see 14.34 former blazers out of the 26 reach in the postseason. A quick CHI-squared test (statisticians correct me if that is inappropriate or incorrect) gives us a value of 1.82 and a p-value of less than or equal to 0.20, but greater than 0.10 (I believe that's a two tailed P-value, but was too lazy to pursue it further). That isn't statistically significant by most standards, but it is suggestive.

What that means is we pick at random, there is less than a 10% chance of getting 19 or more out of 26 randomly selected non-blazer players in the playoffs. It seems there is are a disproportionate number of former pinwheel wearers in the postseason.

Why is that? The skips scap scalleywags and haters in the forum seem to believe that it simply means the present blazer management is incompetent and has given away all our great players that went on to lead their teams to the postseason. Is this true, or does some other factor account for the variance from expected?

When looking at the list realistically, it doesn't appear that many of them have actually made a difference as to whether their team actually made the playoffs. In fact, I can only think of two that if you took them off their bubble teams (forgetting for a second that the team would have gone on to sign someone else) it would have cost them a playoff berth: Jermaine O'Neal and Bonzi Wells.

It seems as though most of those former blazers that are now on playoff squads actively selected winning teams to resign with. Damon, NVE, McInnis, Daniels, Jackson, McKie, SAR, Rasheed, Cliffy, DD, and Grant all could have played for any number of teams, but they picked to go to good ones, many for less money than they could have gotten elsewhere.

Rather than their making the playoffs because the Blazers gave talent away for nothing, I think what we are witnessing here is the fact that older playoff tested veterans get to choose which teams they go to, and they choose winners, which accounts for the distribution we see this year.

Greetings Blazer Fans!

2006-05-03T19:03:00.001-07:00

Welcome to my newest blog! In case anyone was wondering what I look like ... that's a real-live actual photo of me.